Wednesday, January 22, 2025

The Outlook News

Rio Tinto shares fall on merger failure reports; banks weigh down on Australia's shares

The Australian share market fell Friday due to the fall in banking stocks, and Rio Tinto's decline on news of failed merger talks with Glencore. The S&P/ASX 200 ended the week 0.2% lower, at 8,310.4. The benchmark closed the week with a 0.2% gain. After reports that failed merger talks had taken place between the No. The world's No. 2 miner, Glencore, is one of the largest miners in coal and base metals. The financial sector led the declines in Friday's market, with a 1% drop to record their worst week since four. The "big four" banks dropped between 1.2% and 1.8%.

Oil Dips on Larger US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions

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Oil prices fell back slightly on Thursday, a day after settling at multi-month highs on U.S. President Joe Biden's latest sanctions targeting Russia and a larger than forecast fall in U.S. crude stocks.Brent crude futures were down 12 cents, or 0.15%, to $81.91 per barrel at 1415 GMT, after rising 2.6% in the previous session to their highest since July 26.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 18 cents, or 0.22%, to $79.86 a barrel, after gaining 3.3% on Wednesday…

EIA predicts that oil prices will be pressured by oversupply between 2025 and 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Tuesday, said that oil prices would be pressured in 2025 and in 2026 due to the global production growth exceeding demand. Analysts expect a glut of oil this year after the demand growth in the two largest consumers, the U.S.A. and China, slowed dramatically in 2024. The EIA expects Brent crude prices to drop 8%, to an average of $74 per barrel by 2025. Prices will then continue to decline to $66 per barrel by 2026. The EIA has slightly increased its estimate for the record U.S.

EIA: US power consumption will reach new highs by 2025 and 26.

The Short Term Energy Outlook, published by the Energy Information Administration on Tuesday, predicted that U.S. electricity consumption would reach record levels in 2025 and in 2026. EIA projects that the demand for electricity will increase to 4,175 billions kWh by 2025, and 4,252 trillions kWh by 2026. This is a significant increase from the 4,089 billions kilowatt hours (kWh) recorded in 2024. EIA predicts that by 2025, residential customers will consume 1,519 billion kWh of electricity. Commercial customers will consume 1,457 trillion kWh and industrial customers 1,056 trillion kWh.

Prices of Euro GAS are falling due to profit-taking

On Tuesday morning, Dutch and British wholesale prices for gas fell slightly after a rise of around 7% the previous day. According to LSEG, the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF Hub was down 0.40 euros at 47.85 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), which is $14.38 /mmbtu by 0923 GMT. The Dutch March contract is down by 0.98 Euros at 47.62 euro/MWh. The day-ahead contract in Britain fell by 1,03 pence, to 122 pence/therm. In a daily report, LSEG analyst Wayne Bryan…

Australia's Competition Regulator flags gas import requirements for the East Coast

The Australian Competition Regulator said that the east coast of Australia is likely to experience a gas shortage by 2027, which could lead to imports. It cited its gas inquiry report. The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission stated that the report found the development of new production and supporting infrastructure for gas has not kept up with the increasing demand. It is anticipated that the east coast gas market will have surpluses in 2025 and 26 but may face shortages afterward due to structural declines and uncertainty regarding future investments.

Australia's 4-day rally is a resounding success as local inflation data are on the table

Australian shares ended a four-day streak of gains to open slightly lower on Wednesday. Losses in domestic banks slowed the gains in mining stocks. Investors awaited data on November inflation due later that day. By 2332 GMT, the S&P/ASX 200 Index was down 0.2% to 8,268,2 points. The benchmark index ended Tuesday 0.3% higher. According to a survey of economists, Australian markets expect a rise of 2.2% for the consumer price index for November. This is compared to the 2.1% increase in October. This will influence the outlook of interest rates by the central bank.

Hess CEO gives upbeat forecast on oil demand, but says Guyana has only scratched the surface of its potential

HOUSTON, January 7 - Hess Chief Executive John Hess said on Tuesday that he believes the oil market is closer to being in balance than it is oversupplied, despite concerns about China's demand and increased production by non-OPEC and U.S. producers. In remarks made to investors at Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference, he expressed an optimistic outlook on the shale market and Guyana's prospects as an oil producer. Hess warned that the market may be volatile in 2018, citing political risks in Iran and Venezuela. Hess said that the demand was stronger than expected.

Shell's LNG strategy is a 'disconnect,' according to Shell shareholders' climate resolution

Shell's plans for increasing sales of LNG have been questioned by a major shareholder group that filed a motion asking if the strategy was compatible with a goal of cutting carbon emissions. Shell is the largest LNG trader in the world. CEO Wael sawan bets on the growing demand. Analysts and climate activists are concerned about the implications of this for climate targets. Shell shareholders, including Brunel Pension Partnership and Greater Manchester Pension Fund with assets…

Dallas Fed: US oil executives will expect quicker permits under Trump

According to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas study released on Thursday, U.S. Energy executives expect quicker permitting times for drilling federal lands in the Trump administration. According to a survey conducted in December of 134 energy companies in Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico, the overall outlook improved, activity levels increased, and uncertainty decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024. Trump's "drill baby drill" slogan has led him to promise lower gas prices and faster approvals for energy projects.

US NatGas up as LNG feedgas rises, Frigid Temps Forecast

U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on near record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.Also supporting U.S. futures, traders noted that European gas prices climbed to a 13-month high due to cold weather and the expiration of a deal that allowed Russia to pipe gas to Europe across Ukraine. [NG/EU]Front-month gas futures <NGc1> for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 3 cents…

Palm prices fall in the run-up to Christmas

The price of palm oil in Malaysia traded sideways Tuesday, ahead of Christmas holidays as profit-taking capped gains. At the close, the benchmark contract for palm oil delivery in March on the Bursa Derivatives exchange was up 13 Ringgit or 0.29% at 4,555 Ringgit ($1,015.83). Anilkumar bagani, commodity researcher at Sunvin Group, stated that crude palm oil futures were trading sideways or lower due to profit-taking ahead of Christmas holidays. The contract rose by 2.46% Monday, ending six consecutive sessions of losses.

Sinopec, a top refiner, claims that China's oil demand will peak in 2027.

Sinopec, the state-owned refinery, said that China's oil demand will peak in 2027. This is due to a decline in diesel and gasoline consumption, which has slowed down global oil markets. Sinopec stated that the peak oil demand in 2027 will not exceed 800 million metric tonnes, or 16 millions barrels of crude oil per day. Sinopec predicted peak China oil demand at 800 million tonnes around 2026-2030. The energy sector in China faces new uncertainty by 2025, with the return of…

Sinopec predicts China's oil consumption will peak in 2027

Sinopec (China Petrochemical Corp.) expects China’s petroleum consumption will peak in 2027, at no more that 800 million metric tonnes or 16 million barrels a day. The state energy group released an outlook on Thursday. The forecast is more precise than the one made by the giant refining company last year when it estimated that China's peak oil production would be around 800 millions tons between 2026 to 2030. According to the Beijing outlook, the peak consumption in 2024 would have been 750 million tonnes - only the second annual decrease in the last two decades.

US LNG Rises 2% on LNG Plant Volume Data

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday on rising flows to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and expectations utilities pulled more gas out of storage than usual to heat homes and businesses during extreme cold for a second week in a row last week.Analysts, however, projected rising output and forecasts for mild weather and low heating demand through the start of the new year should keep storage withdrawals smaller than normal in coming weeks. There was currently about 4% more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.

Spot prices fall on forecast of strong wind supply

The European spot electricity prices fell on Wednesday as the wind supply is expected to increase throughout the region and demand to fall in France due to warmer temperatures. LSEG data show that the German baseload day-ahead power dropped 38.2% at 0923 GMT to 57.75 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh). LSEG data shows that the equivalent French contract is down by 40.5%, at 59.5 Euro/MWh. According to LSEG analyst Francisco Gaspar Machado, the outlook for Wednesday is negative due to an increased supply of wind power in Germany. The country will be a net importer in the morning.

EU solar growth slows, raising concerns for energy transition

Industry data revealed on Tuesday that the growth in solar power installations in Europe has slowed to 4% after years of double digit increases. This is raising concerns over the continent's transition to clean energy. The findings are a blow to the European Union’s plans to expand rapidly its use of renewable energies – a key pillar in the bloc’s efforts to combat climate change and to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. SolarPower Europe, an industry association…

French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch

Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or even individual stocks. TotalEnergies French oil giant Total Energies has sold half of its shares in the UK's West Burton Energy Gas Power Plant to Epuki. Vallourec French steel tube maker Vallourec has announced that it will sell a significant majority of the production facility in Dusseldorf-Rath to CTP, for 155 millions euros. The transaction should close by the end of 2024. EssilorLuxottica…

Karoon Energy, Australia's energy company, reduces its outlook for Brazil project

Karoon Energy, an Australian oil and gas company, said that it has reduced the production forecast for its Bauna Project in Brazil because of operational disruptions. After the disruptions, the company reduced its production forecast for 2024 for the Bauna Project to 7.2-7.4 millions barrels of crude oil. The previous outlook was 7.5-7.7million barrels. Karoon reported that two of the 16 chains used to lift the floating production storage offloading system (FPSO) failed. This caused the Bauna Project to be shut down in December 11.

Oil Falls as Chinese Demand Sags, Fed Ponders Rate Cut

Oil futures slipped from the highest levels in several weeks on Monday on weakness in consumer spending in China, which is the world's largest oil importer, and as investors paused buying ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.Brent crude futures fell 39 cents to $74.10 a barrel by 1:10 p.m EST, after settling on Friday at their highest since Nov. 22.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed 35 cents to $70.94 after registering its highest close since Nov.

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