Monday, March 31, 2025

Prices for EUROPE GAS remain stable despite the latest Sudzha gas stations attack

March 28, 2025

The Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas were mostly unchanged on Friday, as the recent attacks on a Russian supply point were offset by an improved outlook for supply-demand as winter comes to an end.

LSEG data shows that the Dutch front-month contract rose 0.17 euro to 41.17 euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), which is $12.99/mmBtu by 1104 GMT.

The Dutch day-ahead contracts was down by 0.10 euros at 40.90 Euro/MWh.

The British day-ahead contracts rose 0.52 pence, to 98.50 pence/therm. Meanwhile, the weekend contract increased 0.65 pence and now stands at 97.45 pence/therm.

Markets showed little reaction when reports were released that the Russian gas metering stations in Sudzha and Sudzha (which is the transit point for Russian gas flowing through Ukraine to Europe) had been destroyed. A week earlier, an attack at the site had pushed prices up.

A trader explained that the lack of reaction was probably due to the fact that the facility had already been attacked the week before and there was an increasing belief in a truce.

He added that the wider market sentiment had also cooled as winter was coming to an end and gas storage withdrawals were at their lowest point.

Another trader stated that there were signs of a weakening gas demand in China, which would reduce competition for LNG cargoes required to refill gas storages during the summer.

Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that EU gas storage inventories are currently 33.6% full.

Daniel Hynes senior commodities strategist from ANZ stated in a report that "storage levels will likely fall below 30% by the end of April, which is significantly below historic levels."

He added that restocking Europe's natural gas stores will remain a challenge, as there are still few prospects of Russian pipeline gas returning, increasing reliance on LNG.

LSEG data revealed that the temperature forecast for next week has been revised down.

Ulrich Weber, LSEG's analyst, said that the gas sent out from LNG terminals in Belgium, France and Switzerland was also below expectations.

He added: "Overall, our two-week account balance has flipped from net injections (TWhs) of 4 to withdrawals (1.7 TWhs). This is a bullish shift."

The benchmark carbon contract in Europe increased by 0.50 euros to 69.04 euro per metric ton. Nora Buli, reporting from Oslo; Nina Chestney, editing)

(source: Reuters)

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