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Prices of gas in Europe are falling due to a weaker demand and stronger forecast winds

October 18, 2024

Dutch and British wholesale price fell slightly on Friday morning due to continued high temperatures, lower demand and the expectation of higher wind output.

LSEG data shows that the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF hub dropped by 0.20 euros to 39.40 Euro per megawatt hour at 0854 GMT.

The contract for December was lower by 0.37 euros at 39.78 Euro/MWh.

The weekend contract on the British market was down 0.60 pence to 94.90 per therm.

The wind power generation in North-West Europe is low, but it is expected to increase over the weekend. The weekend gas demand for power plants will be about the same at 1,882 gigawatt-hours per day (GWh/d), but it is expected to increase by 88GWh/d to 2405GWh/d during working days next week, according to LSEG.

The total Norwegian exports have been slightly reduced after Norway's Gassco announced that some maintenance outages would be extended.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan said that the gap between Asian and European price has shrunk significantly in recent weeks.

"For U.S. exporters of LNG, we're in a zone where there is no clear preferred market. "This also explains the relative stabilization of TTF price at present," said they.

The gas market is still concerned about the escalation of tensions and the retaliation by Israel against Hamas for its leader's death on Thursday.

Hezbollah, a militant group in Lebanon, said Friday that it had entered a new phase of its war with Israel. Iran also said the "spirit of resistance" would be strengthened after the death of Hamas leader Yahya sinwar.

Western leaders claimed that his death would allow the conflict to be resolved, but Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the war would continue until all hostages taken by Hamas militants are returned.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was down by 0.56 euros at 62.42 euro per metric ton.

(source: Reuters)

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