Monday, November 4, 2024

Prices for gas in Europe are rising as the low wind increases demand.

November 4, 2024

Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas rose on Monday as low wind speeds increased gas demand for electricity generation. Strong inventories and temperatures above normal could limit further increases.

LSEG data shows that the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF hub at 0926 GMT was 0.98 euros higher, at 39.88 Euro per megawatt hour.

The contract for the day-ahead contract was 1,28 euros higher, at 39.53 Euro/MWh.

LSEG data shows that the British contract for the weekend rose 4.00 pence to 99.25 p/therm while the contract for the day ahead increased by 2.75 pence to 99.75 p/therm.

According to LSEG analyst Wayne Bryan, "Gas for power demand is expected to increase as low wind speeds are the main drivers."

Our forecast is that prices will remain between 38-40 euros/MWh in the next few days. Wayne said that after three consecutive days of price losses, the prices may pare back some today.

In north-west Europe, wind speeds will remain below 10 gigawatts until at least November 12 and won't be higher than normal until Nov 18. Solar output will fall in the next few days, and should remain at normal levels until November 18, according to LSEG.

According to LSEG, the demand is expected to increase by 251 gigawatts per day (GWh/d).

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan say that despite the high temperatures, gas consumption for heating in Europe is still below normal.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets increased by 0.75 euros to 64.62 euro per metric ton.

(source: Reuters)

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