The US natgas price is rising due to concerns about Canada tariffs
U.S. Natural Gas Futures rose 10% on Tuesday to a 26 month high, on record flows into liquefied gas export plants. There was also concern that Canadian gas exports could be affected by the tariffs placed on Canada and Mexico by U.S. president Donald Trump.
Canada provides about 8% total U.S. demand for gas, including exports. Some of these return to Canada.
The U.S. will consume approximately 90.2 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd), and export another 21.1 bcfd as LNG or via pipelines in 2024 to Mexico, Canada and other countries. The majority of U.S. gas exports are to Mexico.
In order to meet this demand, the U.S. will produce around 103.1 billion cubic feet per day of gas by 2024. The majority of that amount will be imported from Canada.
According to LSEG, data shows that the U.S. is on track to import around 8.3 bcfd from Canada this Tuesday. This compares to an average of 9.6 bcfd for the previous seven days.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Canadian exports were around 8.6 bcfd by 2024. They averaged 7.6 bcffd for the five previous years (2019-2023).
A billion cubic feet of gas is enough to power about 5 million U.S. households for one day.
The EIA reported that the U.S. border state receiving most Canadian gas by 2024 was Idaho (about 2,5 bcfd), Minnesota, (about 1,5 bcfd), North Dakota, (about 1,3 bcfd), Washington State (about 1,3 bcfd), and New York City (about 0,6 bcfd).
However, a large amount of this gas does not stay in the border states, but instead flows to other states.
According to the EIA, the six states of the New England region in the U.S. consumed approximately 2.5 bcfd in 2024, with about 0.5 bcfd being imported directly from Canada through pipes to New Hampshire Maine and Vermont.
New England will also export about 0.3 billion cubic feet per day of gas to Canada by 2024, mainly from Maine and New Brunswick.
According to Canada Energy Regulator data, the majority of gas produced in Canada is from Alberta and British Columbia. This will account for approximately 98% of Canada's total production by 2023.
According to the EIA, in other energy markets the U.S. will import about 27.2 megawatt hours (MWh), of electricity from Canada by 2024, and export around 17.8 MWh, to Canada.
Power is also traded across the U.S. Canada border, just like gas.
Ontario, Canada's largest province, has said that, if U.S. Tariffs continue, it will impose a 25 percent surcharge on exports of electricity to New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler; Scott DiSavino)
(source: Reuters)
