The front-runner for Mozambique president is likely to continue keeping Rwandans on the job of protecting gas sites
Analysts say that the ruling party candidate for this month's election, who is almost guaranteed to win, will continue to rely on Rwanda's army and European money in order to secure the region's vast gas fields, which are plagued by islamist violence.
Daniel Chapo (47), an ex-highschool teacher, will be overseeing the construction of two LNG projects that are currently halted due to insecurity in the northern Cabo Delgado Province.
In order to achieve this, he will need to heavily rely on the Rwandan military, which was brought in by President Felipe Nyusi, currently in office, in 2021 in order for local troops that are struggling, be bolstered.
Tertius Jacobs, Lead Analyst for Mozambique, at Risk Consultancy Focus Group, stated that "The Rwandans were undeniably capable." "Mozambique... has few to no other alternatives."
Special forces and other Rwandan units are responsible for securing the area around Afungi, where TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and others plan to build LNG plants.
Jacobs said Nyusi introducing Chapo in June to Rwandan President Paul Kagame was a nod towards continuity. This came amid reports from Maputo from civil society that Rwandan security could build a camp in Quissanga District to buffer against the insurgent activities from the North, thus enhancing security for elections.
After the withdrawal of regional soldiers from southern Africa in July, Rwandan forces have taken on greater responsibilities. An email request for comment was not responded to by a spokesperson.
In February, an ambush killed over 20 Mozambican troops, displacing tens and thousands of people. This was one of the most violent clashes since TotalEnergies stopped its $20 billion project in 2021.
ExxonMobil has also put on hold its neighbouring project, which frustrates Mozambique’s ambitions to be a major exporter of gas.
TotalEnergies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne said that work could resume this year, if security improves. However, funding is a concern.
ExxonMobil will make its final investment decision before the end of 2025.
"Rwanda remains the key." Robert Besseling CEO of Pangea-Risk, said that they have "thousands of troops" to protect the LNG sites.
A spokesperson for the EU said that the EU, already a major donor, is considering additional support to Rwandan efforts in quelling the insurgency.
She said, "The fight against terror in Cabo Delgado has become a common battle." (Reporting and editing by Tim Cocks, Alex Richardson, and Wendell Roelf)
(source: Reuters)
