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Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to continue with its planned production increase from October.

August 30, 2024

OPEC+ will proceed with a planned increase in oil production from October as Libyan outages, and pledged reductions by some members, to compensate for the overproduction, counteract the impact of sluggish consumer demand, according to six sources within the producer group.

Eight OPEC+ member countries are expected to increase their output by 180,000 barrels a day in October as part of a strategy to unwind the most recent layer (2.2 million bpd) of cuts while maintaining other cuts until end-2025.

Oil prices have been impacted by a slowdown in the growth of demand, notably China. Some analysts are unsure whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) will proceed with the increase in October.

Six OPEC+ source told us that the plan to increase output remains in place, as the loss in Libyan production tightens up the market.

One source said: "There are many unknowns about demand, but there's also hope that the Fed will cut interest rates to boost economic growth."

Saudi Arabian Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said previously that OPEC+ may pause or reverse production increases if they decide the market isn't strong enough.

OPEC+ will not hold any formal discussions until the top ministers of a panel known as the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which meets on October 2, meet. The JMMC has the power to make recommendations for the broader OPEC+ group.

OPEC, Saudi Arabia's government communications office, and the Russian Deputy Premier Alexander Novak's office did not immediately respond to comments. (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan, Alex Lawler. Olesya Astakhova. Ahmad Ghaddar.

(source: Reuters)

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