Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to go ahead with its planned increase in oil production for May.

Three sources said that OPEC+ would likely stick with its plan to increase oil production for a second month in a row in May. This is despite the steady price of oil and plans to make some members reduce their pumping to compensate past overproduction.

OPEC+, a group consisting of OPEC producers and allies led by Russia and pumping over 40% of world oil. The group plans to increase its output by 135,000 barges per day in the month of May.

This would be the second increase in a plan that aims to undo some of the millions barrels per day cuts the group had been implementing since 2022.

The group is trying to simultaneously raise the output targets of members who have met their previous targets with discipline, while pressing other producers who have exceeded their target to reduce output and pump at a lower level for a period to compensate.

On March 20, the group announced that seven members would make additional monthly cuts from this month to June 2026. On paper, these cuts are larger than the monthly production increases.

One OPEC+ delegate stated that the compensation cuts would hopefully make it easier to continue the plan of monthly hikes for the group. Two other delegates said they expect the schedule of hikes to continue in May.

Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, all sources declined to provide their names. OPEC, Saudi Arabian authorities and Russian authorities didn't immediately respond to requests for comments.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $72 per barrel on Monday. Brent crude fell to nearly $68 on March 5, the lowest level since December 2021. This was two days after OPEC+ announced that they would increase April's production.

OPEC+ is cutting its output by 5,85 million bpd. This represents about 5.7% global supply. The group has agreed to a series steps that will support the market since 2022.

On April 5, an OPEC+ Ministerial Committee, which has the authority to recommend changes to production policy to the larger group, will meet.

Alexander Novak, the Russian Deputy Premier, said earlier this month that OPEC+ might reverse its decision to increase output after April if market imbalances persist. (Editing by Simon Webb & Susan Fenton).

(source: Reuters)