Sinopec predicts China's oil consumption will peak in 2027

Sinopec (China Petrochemical Corp.) expects China’s petroleum consumption will peak in 2027, at no more that 800 million metric tonnes or 16 million barrels a day. The state energy group released an outlook on Thursday.

The forecast is more precise than the one made by the giant refining company last year when it estimated that China's peak oil production would be around 800 millions tons between 2026 to 2030.

According to the Beijing outlook, the peak consumption in 2024 would have been 750 million tonnes - only the second annual decrease in the last two decades.

China's crude output is projected to reach 215 millions tons by 2025. Its oil refining capability will range between 960 and 970 millions tons per year.

Sinopec says China's gas consumption could peak earlier, but at a greater level than what it predicted last year.

China's gas consumption is expected to reach 570 billion cubic meters (bcm), and then plateau between 2035-2040 at 620 bcm. Sinopec's last-year forecast predicted that China's gas consumption would reach 610 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2040.

Sinopec said that natural gas consumption will reach 458 billion cubic meters in 2025. This is an increase of 6.6% on a year-on-year basis.

The Chinese government also expects that carbon emissions related to energy will now reach a higher peak.

Carbon emissions from energy are expected to reach a peak between 10,8 billion and 11,12 billion tons before 2030. Last year, the forecast predicted a peak of around 10.1 billion tonnes between 2026 and 30.

(source: Reuters)