Shell's scenarios predict significant LNG growth within the next few years

Shell published scenarios on Wednesday that showed a rapid rise in global demand for liquefied gas. Gas will probably have a gradual increase, and oil could peak at the start of the next decade.

The British energy company created three scenarios to model energy security on a long-term basis, but said that these do not reflect their strategy or business plans.

Surge is the most optimistic outlook for economic growth. It assumes that artificial intelligence will be used widely to boost productivity and increase energy demand.

In a second scenario, called "Archipelagos", countries are more focused on their own self-interests than working together to develop renewable energy and spread AI.

The "Horizon" scenario instead is based on an assumption that the world would reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050, and have a global temperature increase of less than 1.5 degrees Celsius at the end the century.

Shell's report stated that "in all three scenarios liquefied gas will grow significantly in the near future, driven by ongoing projects in Qatar, the United States and Canada, with a potential of reaching 550 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) at the end the decade."

In the Surge scenario, LNG supply is expected to continue growing and reach 700 MTPA by 2040. The 'Horizon scenario' shows that LNG demand will peak in the early 2030s.

The most optimistic scenario, "Surge", predicts that natural gas will continue to grow until 2045, but the 'Horizon" scenario projects a peak very soon, in order to reach net zero emissions in 2050.

Shell claims that the electrification and modernization of the road transport system is the primary reason why the world will reach its peak oil demand by 2030, at the latest.

Shell believes that the energy demand will continue to rise in all three scenarios.

The report stated that "the scenarios highlight the fact that primary energy consumption in 2050 may be almost a quarter more than it was in 2024, depending on economic growth rate, energy efficiency gains and pace of electrification."

Later this year, the group will release its LNG outlook.

(source: Reuters)