Researchers say that a late-season storm could disrupt the US oil production by 4 million barrels.

Researchers said that a late-season tropical storm, which is predicted to intensify this week into a Category 2 hurricane in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, could reduce U.S. crude oil production by approximately 4 million barrels.

Storm Rafael, which was in the Caribbean Sea on Monday evening, is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico via a path that will take it through oil-producing regions. The National Hurricane Center reported that winds could reach up to 100 miles per hour (161 km/h) on Tuesday.

Earth Science Associates, an energy analytics firm, estimated that U.S. producers of oil could lose between 3.1 and 4.9 millions barrels based on a model which estimates volume losses based on past storm intensity and trajectory.

According to the model, natural gas production losses can range from 4.56 billion to 6.39 billion cubic foot. Earth Science's Chief operating officer, Tony Dupont said that the upper end of this range assumes structural damages that prolong shut-ins.

Shell and Chevron announced on Monday that they had moved non-essential personnel from their platforms to the shore in advance of the storm. Shell stated that it had paused some drilling activities, but this did not have an impact on production. Chevron said that routine oil and natural gas production had not been affected.

Earth Science's model predicts that Rafael will have the second largest impact on offshore production of all storms this year, after hurricane Francine. Francine shut down up to 42 percent of oil production and 52 percent of natural gas.

Raphael is the 17th named hurricane of the Atlantic hurricanes season. Its track will take it to areas in the Gulf where there are many oil and gas platforms. The season lasts until Nov. 30.

According to Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach, there have been 10 named Atlantic Storms since September 24 this year. This is a record.

(source: Reuters)