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Prices of gas in Europe are lower due to profit-taking and lower demand

October 15, 2024

The Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas were lower on Tuesday morning due to profit-taking and after media reports that Israel was willing not strike Iranian oil targets. This eased concerns about a disruption in supply.

LSEG data shows that the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF hub dropped by 1.00 euros to 39.40 Euro per megawatt hour, or $12.91/mmbtu by 0849 GMT.

The front-month contract on the British market was reduced by 3.00 pence, to 98.00 per therm.

The British day-ahead contracts was 2.6 cents lower at 95.00 pence per therm.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan wrote in the morning that "prices are weakening today, likely under pressure from an additional sharp drop in crude oil prices" which has prompted some financial players to take profits.

In a Tuesday statement, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that while his country would listen to America, it would decide on its actions based on its own national interests.

The statement was annexed to a Washington Post report that said Netanyahu told President Joe Biden’s administration Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear or oil targets, but rather military targets.

The attack came amid expectation that Israel would strike as a retaliation to Iran's missile attacks on Israel on October 1. This attack came after a conflict that spiraled out of control between Israel and Hezbollah, backed by Iran in Lebanon.

As maintenance disruptions at the Kristin Troll and Oseberg fields ease, the total Norwegian exports have increased by 11 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d). LSEG analyst Saku Jussila said that flows to the continent are up 7 mcm/d.

Forecasts of milder weather continue to reduce demand. Jussila said that the total demand for North-West Europe is down by 500 gigawatt hours per day (GWh/d). This should be a cause for concern.

Auxilione, a consultancy, said that the market is still extremely nervous despite a positive fundamental outlook. This shows the impact of events around the globe.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets fell 1.2 euros to 64.77 euro per metric ton.

(source: Reuters)

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