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Prices for gas in Europe remain stable as the market balances cold weather risks and supply.

October 23, 2024

Dutch and British wholesale price were slightly higher but mostly stable on Wednesday morning, as forecasts suggested colder temperatures in November. Outages in Norway and geopolitical risks continue to cause supply concerns.

LSEG data shows that the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF hub rose 0.30 euros to 41.35 euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh) at 0849 GMT.

The day-ahead contract in the British market was up 0.40 pence, at 101.75 p/therm. Meanwhile, the front-month contract gained 0.50 pence, to 102.15 pence/therm.

In a morning report, Auxilione analysts noted that the temperature forecasts for November had been lowered below the seasonal norm in the most recent simulations. This could start to put pressure on the mix of supply and demand.

Equinor has said that it can replace the volumes with other fields.

According to the latest transparency data published by Norwegian gas infrastructure operator Gassco, the outage will last until Monday.

LSEG analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv stated in a report that the market is still alert to any outages of European gas infrastructure, or anything else that could affect global liquefied gas (LNG), supply.

He added that "Geopolitics, with the fluid and simmering Middle East situation will continue to create volatility." We are waiting for the next news-driven spike.

Onyshkiv stated that the European gas storage system will be switched to full withdrawals by November. LSEG expects storage levels to fall to 85%. This is 11 percentage points lower than last year, but still healthy.

European data on gas infrastructure shows that 95.3% of storage sites are full.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up by 1.62 euros, at 63.87 euro per metric ton.

(source: Reuters)

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