Prices fluctuate in Europe due to colder weather forecasts despite constant Russia flows
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fluctuated Monday morning due to colder weather forecasts, a decrease in Norwegian supplies and stable Russian gas flows through Ukraine. However, more LNG cargoes were heading towards Europe.
LSEG data shows that the benchmark front-month contract traded at the Dutch TTF Hub at 45.90 Euro per megawatt hour at 1007 GMT, after fluctuating between losses and gains in the morning.
After Austria's OMV informed Russia's Gazprom that it would stop its gas deliveries, the price of gas in Austria hit 47.15 Euros/MWh intraday on Friday. This was its highest level since November 24, last year.
The British day-ahead contract rose 1.15 pence, to 116.65 pence per thermo.
In a morning report, LSEG analyst Saku Jussila wrote that the latest EC46 has been adjusted to colder temperatures in the first half December. This would be viewed as the main bullish factor for today.
Norwegian flows were down Monday morning after outages at Aasgard and Oseberg.
The nominations for Russian gas going to Europe were unchanged over the weekend, and gas continues to flow as before. Other buyers are stepping up to take on any unsold gas.
A trader stated that "commercial interests have counterbalanced the geopolitical risks or the OMV arbitral dispute" over the weekend. He added that it is pretty unpredictable how things will turn out in the next few days.
The trader said that there were still downside risks due to a colder season, a faster depletion of EU gas stocks, and a weaker wind profile.
He said: "Price-wise, I don't see any significant change from where we are now with supply uncertainty and weather fundamentals."
Analysts at Auxilione wrote in their morning note that there is a surge of new LNG cargoes headed towards Europe and Britain just as winter begins to set in.
The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets gained 0.34 euros to 68.35 euro per metric ton.
(source: Reuters)
