Friday, September 20, 2024

Prices of EUROPE GAS are rising amid cold weather and uncertainty over Ukraine transit deal

September 20, 2024

Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas rose on Friday morning, trading within a narrow range amid forecasts for cold weather and after an Ukrainian news outlet withdrew its report that Ukraine agreed to transport Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe.

LSEG data show that the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF hub rose by 1.00 euros to 34.33 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWH), which is $11.23 mmBtu at 0908 GMT.

The day-ahead contract in the British market rose by 2.50 cents to 88.85 cents per therm.

Prices dropped on Thursday after Ukrainska Pravda reported that Ukraine had agreed to temporarily transit Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe after ending its transit agreement with Russia.

The outlet has since retracted its report, and two Azerbaijani sources of energy have also stated that the report is incorrect.

Saku Jussila, LSEG analyst, said: "The situation is still extremely unclear as neither the Ukrainian nor the Azerbaijani sides have confirmed the reports."

Gazprom, the Russian gas company, said that it will send 42.4 (mcm), a significant increase from 42.3 (mcm), of gas via Ukraine to Europe on Friday.

The latest forecasts show that the cold snap from Sept. 26 to Sept. 30 is intensifying, with temperatures more than 3 degrees lower than the normal seasonal temperature. This will increase heating demand in the coming day by 8 million cubic meters per day (mcm/day).

The price increase is due to the extension of Norwegian maintenance in Nyhamna and Kollsnes by one day, which was done on Thursday evening.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan wrote in a morning report that "looking at short-term fundamentals", the situation has tightened up a little as the Norwegian maintenance plan was updated over night with additional work which will slow the production ramp-up.

Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), according to its data, showed that the European gas storage capacity was last seen as 93.45%.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was 0.94 euros higher, at 63.79 euro per metric ton.

(source: Reuters)

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