Monday, December 23, 2024

Oil Steady as U.S. Voters Head to Polls

Posted by November 8, 2016

Clinton seen by investors as offering greater stability. China crude imports weaken, but still up on year.

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday, ahead of the U.S. presidential election, as investors unwound some of their recent bets against economically sensitive assets such as crude and equities.

In a swell of investor risk appetite, U.S. stocks racked up their biggest one-day gain since March on Monday, which fed into an easing in the dollar that underpinned more risk-linked assets such as oil, copper and European equities on Tuesday.

The most recent polls have put Democrat Hillary Clinton ahead of Republican rival Donald Trump in Tuesday's election. Clinton is seen by investors as offering greater certainty and stability.

Brent January crude oil futures were flat at $46.14 a barrel by 1205 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 5 cents at $44.84, off their session highs after the U.S. dollar pared losses.

Both contracts are still down around 3.5 percent week-on-week, but above the six-week lows struck on Friday.

"All that has fed into the uplift and now we're probably going to be at a standstill until the (election results) numbers begin to filter in," BNP Paribas global head of commodity strategy Harry Tchilinguirian said.

"Now is just simply a period for waiting and inasmuch as OPEC came out with its annual oil market report, the focus of the market right now is people are positioned, waiting for the election to pass."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast demand for its oil will rise in the next three years, suggesting its 2014 decision to let prices fall to curb costlier rival supplies is delivering higher market share.

The group meets on Nov. 30 and has pledged to reach a deal on cutting output to try to erode a two-year-old global surplus.

But a series of member states asking to be exempt from any deal, along with questions over the likelihood of non-OPEC rival Russia joining in, have created doubt over OPEC's ability to deliver a meaningful cut.

"The emerging sense of disappointment surrounding the OPEC meeting in three weeks' time is likely to prompt further financial investors to jettison their long positions, too," Commerzbank said in a note.

In China, oil data released on Tuesday was weak, albeit coming down from high levels.

In physical oil markets, U.S. pipeline companies with operations at the heart of the country's commercial oil industry at Cushing, Oklahoma, restarted on Monday after an earthquake triggered safety shutdowns.

By Amanda Cooper

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