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Oil Eases as Iran, Libya Output Rises

Posted by October 4, 2016

Iran crude, condensate sales near 2011 peak; Libya oil production rises above 500,000 bpd.

Oil prices eased on Tuesday on news that Iran and Libya have continued to increase production, overshadowing an OPEC agreement struck last week to freeze output levels in a bid to stem a two-year price rout.

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures were trading down 22 cents at $50.67 a barrel at 1027 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 24 cents at $48.57 a barrel.

"Today's losses should come as no surprise as Libyan production is climbing higher and Iranian exports are on the rise too. Add to these that the dollar is strengthening and you have a bearish cocktail," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London.

Iran's crude oil and condensate sales have likely approached levels last seen at peak time in 2011 before western sanctions were imposed, sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Iran, which is allowed to produce "maximum levels that make sense" as part of an output limit agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week, likely sold 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and condensate in September, the sources said.

In a further sign it plans to lift output, Iran on Tuesday signed its first new style contract with a domestic company to upgrade two of its oil fields.

Iran wants to regain its pre-sanctions production level of 4 million bpd.

At the same time, production is also rising in Libya, which is also exempt from an output freeze. The country's Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO) said its production had risen to 320,000 bpd, up from about 290,000 bpd late last week, helping to push the country's production above 500,000 bpd.

Oil prices also took a knock from a stronger dollar, which reached a 13-day high against a basket of major currencies after a positive U.S. economic survey increased investors' confidence in a rise in U.S. interest rates by the end of the year.

Oil investors are also keenly awaiting the latest U.S. commercial crude oil stocks data, which has surprised the market over the past four weeks with unexpected drawdowns.

A Reuters poll showed analysts expect a 2.7 million-barrel rise in stocks in the week ending Sept. 30, a trend which would be bearish for prices.

"A build in inventories is expected, so investors are taking profits before the release of the EIA numbers," said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro.

 

By Karolin Schaps

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