Norway's power grid operator reduces its demand forecast and deficit projection

Statnett, the Norwegian transmission system operator, said that the growth of Norway's electric demand in the next few years will be slower than originally projected because the electrification rate is lower than expected.

The TSO stated that the Nordic countries will no longer face a deficit in power as a whole during this decade. However, some regions may face a shortage which must be met by imports.

Statnett's most recent short-term analysis predicts that the Norwegian electricity demand will rise from 139 TWh to 160 TWh in 2029.

The same scenario predicted that demand would reach 163 TWh by 2028.

Gunnar Lovas is Statnett's director of markets and systems development. He said that the greatest uncertainty was where, when and how much consumption would increase.

Norway's current surplus of 18 TWh per year is expected to shrink to just 3 TWh by 2029. Previous forecasts warned that shortages would begin in 2027.

Statnett's analysis shows that power generation will increase by 6 TWh by 2029, mainly due to solar and hydropower. However, there won't be any new wind energy capacity because of local opposition.

Solar power is growing slowly in Norway, and it has a low starting point. The first offshore wind power is expected to be available in 2030.

Lovas forecast that the average power price will remain at current levels over the next five to ten years. Statnett's baseline scenario predicts southern Norway at 50-55 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWH) by 2029. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, with Nora Buli)

(source: Reuters)