Lower renewables output lifts spot prices

German renewable energy generation is expected to fall on Wednesday.

Marcus Eriksson, LSEG analyst, says that residual load will increase in Germany Wednesday. Exports are expected to peak at mid-morning, and imports afterward.

LSEG data show that German baseload day-ahead power jumped 48.3%, to 86 Euro per Megawatt Hour (MWh), by 0857 GMT.

The French equivalent contract increased by 20.8%, to 50.75 Euros/MWh.

The data revealed that the German wind power production is expected to drop by 5.3 gigawatts to 20.7 GW. Meanwhile, French output is expected to increase by 180 megawatts to 7.9 GW.

LSEG data indicates that the supply of German solar panels will drop by 3.2 GW, to 6.4 GW, on Wednesday.

Rystad Energy's projections indicate that Germany will exceed its policy goal of 80 percent renewable energy by 2030. This is largely due to the rapid growth of solar and wind power capacities, according to the research group.

The German power market, however, is in transition. A 0.7% annual decline in demand has been offset by a reduced supply due to the phase-out of coal and nuclear energy, making the country dependent on imports.

After the Tricastin 2 reactor was shut down unexpectedly, French nuclear availability dropped by two percentage points.

EDF, the operator, said that teams are currently conducting a technical diagnosis. It added that the incident did not have any impact on the safety of personnel, the environment or the installation.

LSEG data indicates that power consumption in Germany will drop by 350 MW on Wednesday to 56.2 GW while French demand should rise by 160 MW, to 44.3 GW.

The German power contract for 2025 was up by 1.1%, at 91.10 Euros/MWh. In France, the baseload contract for 2025 increased by 1.1%, to 77.25 Euros/MWh.

The European CO2 allowances in December 2024 increased by 0.1%, to 66.55 Euros per metric ton. Reporting by Forrest Créllin Editing David Goodman

(source: Reuters)