Global Climate Deal Won't Stop Dangerous Warming

Even if governments strike a pact to curb greenhouse gas emissions next year, they will still exceed levels thought necessary to stand a chance of preventing dangerous global warming, a study by Thomson Reuters Point Carbon showed.

Almost 200 nations have agreed to limit global temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels and are aiming to agree deep cuts in output of the heat-trapping gases in a U.N-sponsored pact in Paris late next year.

But the study published by Point Carbon analysts on Wednesday suggested the temperature goal is out of reach because the build up of heat-trapping emissions already in the atmosphere means far more drastic action is required than governments are planning.

The study mapped possible Paris outcomes against the maximum amount of the gases that a U.N. panel of scientists this year said the world could emit and still have a two-thirds chance of keeping to 2 degrees.

It found that to keep within 2 degrees, global emissions would need to decrease by at least 3 percent year-on-year, well above the 1.9 percent annual rate proposed by the European Union.

"That kind of commitment is just not on the table right now," said Point Carbon analyst Frank Melum.

"Climate negotiators may need to reframe their work  the 2 degree goal just doesn't appear to be achievable, no matter how strong the progress made in Paris next year," said fellow Point Carbon analyst Ashley Lawson.

(Reporting by Ben Garside, editing by William Hardy)