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Forwards Rebound Along with Oil, Wind Storms Ahead

Posted by January 7, 2015

European power forward prices rebounded in Wednesday afternoon trading as oil turned positive after breaching $50 a barrel on the downside for the first time since May 2009.

Germany's Cal' 16 baseload position, the benchmark for European electricity prices for delivery next year, was last at 31.55 euros ($37) a megawatt hour, 15 cents above the close on Tuesday and 35 cents up from an intraday low of 31.20 euros.

The year-ahead contract on the EEX bourse was at 31.65 euros, 50 cents up from its intraday low of 31.15 euros, which had been the lowest for that position since April 7, 2004, and up 25 cents from its previous close.

The French year ahead contract in the OTC market was at par with the previous close at 38.35 euros, up from an earlier contract low of 37.85 euros.

Brent crude oil recovered slightly after falling below $50 a barrel for the first time in 5-1/2 years, as traders took stock after the sharp slide since the start of the year. It was last at $51.20.

EU carbon pared earlier losses but Dec '15 was still 0.5 percent down at 1508 GMT at 6.83 euros a tonne.

"As the carbon market is awaiting more clarity regarding the market stability reserve file, participants seem to be taking direction from surrounding markets," said Point Carbon analyst Emil Dimantchev.

Coal for delivery cif north Europe traded at $61.75 a tonne, down $1.35 from the previous night's McCloskey index. The index has fallen 4 percent since the start of the year.

Spot power prices were down, with German demand surprisingly weak after buyers had bet on rising consumption after a religious holiday on Jan. 6 in some regions.

"That has not materialised because it is so warm," one trader said. "Added to that, there is heavy wind power output."

Thomson Reuters Point Carbon data showed German usage expected down 1.3 gigawatts (GW) day-on-day on Thursday at 71.2 GW, and next week's average likely at 66.1 GW.

Stormy weather lay ahead. German wind output to Thursday would more than double to 15.3 GW on average and peak at 26 GW on Saturday, the Point Carbon data showed.

German baseload for Thursday delivery fell 11 euros on the day to 27.50 euros, while the French contract was down 3.45 euros at 42.55 euros.

Reporting by Vera Eckert

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