Falling temperatures are expected to increase demand

As temperatures drop in the entire region, Tuesday is likely to see an increase in electricity demand.

By 8:10 GMT on Tuesday, the German baseload electricity price was 98 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), down 12.9% compared to Friday's price for Monday delivery.

LSEG data shows that the equivalent French contract is now at 82.50 Euro/MWh, an increase of 42.2%.

Marcus Eriksson, LSEG analyst, predicts that temperatures will drop in Europe, causing consumption to increase. In Germany, wind power is also expected to fall.

LSEG data indicated that power consumption in Germany was expected to increase by 2 gigawatts to 57.7 GW on Tuesday as temperatures are expected to drop 1.6 degrees Celsius, to 13C.

The data also showed that the French demand would increase by 2.9 GW, to 46.7 GW, as temperatures fell 3.2C down to 14.2C.

LSEG data indicated that the German wind output is expected to drop by 4.2 gigawatts to 13.4 GW on Tuesday, while French output will be down by 1.3 GW at 2 GW.

The data revealed that the German solar power supply is expected to increase by 470 megawatts to 4.9 GW.

The French nuclear availability increased by four percentage points, to 73% total capacity. This was due to the return of several reactors from planned outages and the unplanned shutdown of Golfech 1.

Operator EDF reported that the Golfech 1 reactor shut down automatically Saturday, several hours after being reconnected. The shutdown occurred as the reactor was ramping up its power.

The German power for the year ahead was up by 0.4%, at 86 Euros/MWh. Cal '25 in France had a range of bid-ask between 71.25 and 72.25 euro/MWh.

The European CO2 allowances expiring in December 2024 increased by 0.7%, to 62.72 euro per metric ton. ($1 = $0.9219 euros)

(source: Reuters)