Wednesday, December 11, 2024

EUROPE GAS: Prices firm for cold weather, low winds and Norway outages

December 11, 2024

Dutch and British wholesale prices for gas were slightly higher on Wednesday morning, as a cold snap and low winds supported demand while unplanned outages reduced some Norwegian supply.

At 0911 GMT, the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF hub had increased by 0.15 euros to 45.70 Euro per megawatt hour or MWh (or $14.08/mmbtu).

The Dutch day-ahead contracts was up 0.30 euros at 45.80 Euro/MWh.

The day-ahead contract in Britain gained 0.55 pence, to 113.25 cents per therm.

"Our forecast for today is that prices may come under a bit of downward pressure, but they will not fall very far due to the upcoming winter and the need for LNG spot prices to be competitive with Asia," LSEG Analyst Wayne Bryan said.

He added that temperatures will remain below normal for the next five days, except on December 15 and 16.

Gas demand is increasing due to a slowdown in wind energy generation.

Elexon data shows that the peak wind power production in Britain will fall from 5.7 gigawatts on Wednesday to 3.2 GW by Thursday.

Analysts said that unplanned production interruptions in Norway added upward pressure on prices.

Gassco data shows that compressor failures at Kollsnes and Aasgard fields will reduce Norwegian supplies by 17,6 million cubic meters (mcm), per day, until the early part of next week.

Gas exports from Russia to Europe remained constant. The Russian gas supplier Gazprom announced that it will send the same amount of gas via Ukraine to Europe on Wednesday as it did on Tuesday.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan stated in a morning report that milder weather predictions for the second half December and a rise in German wind power production from next week may put pressure on prices.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up by 1.04 euros to 69.22 euro per metric tonne.

(source: Reuters)

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