EUROPE GAS - Prices drop on warmer temperatures and fewer outages
Dutch and British wholesale gasoline prices fell on Monday morning due to higher temperatures forecast for this week, and easing supply problems.
LSEG data shows that the benchmark contract for the Dutch TTF hub at 0813 GMT was 1.10 euros lower, at 34.65 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWH), which is $11.32 mmBtu. The November contract was 0.92 euros lower, at 36.43 Euros/MWh.
The day-ahead contract on the British market fell by 2.05 pennies to 83.75 cents per therm.
The impact of the Norwegian maintenance issues should be lessened by Friday.
The Norwegian flow to Britain is also back today, as the Langeled pipe has been fully restored after a maintenance break.
On Friday, energy companies along the Gulf Coast of the United States resumed operations after assessing damage caused by Hurricane Francine. Onshore terminals and ports reopened to accept LNG and oil tankers.
Analysts at UBS stated that European gas storage capacity is nearing full, with 93% (96 billion cubic meters) of it being used as of September 10.
We calculate that storage will be in the mid-50s by March 2025, based on an average winter. Around 7% lower than this year, but higher than the average for five years (34 %),"), they stated.
The analysts also expect a higher premium for risk in the fourth-quarter, despite weaker fundamentals. They have raised their European gas Q4 estimates by about 4%, to 42.00 euro/MWh, or $13.50 per mmBtu.
The premium was based on geopolitical risks, including the uncertainty surrounding future transit flows through Ukraine and weather risk.
The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was lower by 1.13 euros at 63.86 euro per metric ton.
(source: Reuters)
