Spot prices rise on forecasts of reduced wind supply
The price of European immediate power rose on Wednesday, as the wind power generation in the region is expected to drop sharply. This will lead to a tightening of supply. LSEG analyst Guomarie Wyller forecasts a halving in Germany's wind energy production. She also noted that the higher German solar output will counterbalance this bullish factor. The French baseload power contract for Thursday rose by 54.5% to 47.5 euros ($51.24), while the German day-ahead power contract remained untraded at 66.6 euro, with a price of 79.0 euro. LSEG data indicated that the German wind output is expected to drop to 13.3 gigawatts on Thursday, from 24.2 GW Wednesday.
German contract not traded
French spot prices rose Tuesday for the Wednesday session, and forecasts indicated a mixed output of renewables in Germany. LSEG data shows that the French baseload rate for the day was 93.5 euros ($100.97 per megawatt-hour) at 0958 GMT. This is a 2.8% increase. The data revealed that German day-ahead electricity had not yet begun trading at the time, despite closing on Monday at 108.75 Euros/MWh. LSEG data revealed that on the supply side Germany expected wind output to increase by 2.2 gigawatts to 13.3 GW, while French output was predicted to grow 620 megawatts to 3.2 GW, day-to-day.
Russell: Renewables and gas are gaining ground on coal and oil
The latest review of the International Energy Agency shows that renewables and gas are the most popular energy sources. In its Global Energy Review published on Monday, the IEA described this growth rate as "faster-than-average". Electricity, the fastest growing sector, grew 4.3% by 2024 or almost twice the average annual growth rate of the last decade. In 2024, the IEA reported that renewable power capacity increased by 700 gigawatts. This was a record-breaking annual increase for a 22nd consecutive time. With the increase in nuclear power, 80% of global electricity came from low-emissions sources. The IEA review has two main themes.
Spot prices rise due to lower German solar power
The European spot electricity prices for Wednesday increased on Tuesday, as the German solar power shortage was expected to be greater than gains from wind power and lower demand. German day-ahead electricity gained 1.2% at 0912 GMT to 125.75 Euros per Megawatt Hour. LSEG data shows that the French baseload rate for the day to come was up 10.4%, at 109.60 Euro/MWh. Ricardo Parviero, LSEG analyst, said: "German outlook is bullish once again. He added that a slight drop in demand, coupled with a modest increase in wind energy supplies, does not fully offset the decline in solar power. LSEG data revealed that solar power production in Germany will fall by 3 gigawatts to 5.6 GW.
US drillers reduce oil and gas rigs in the US for the first time in six-weeks - Baker Hughes
Baker Hughes, a leading energy services company, said that the U.S. oil and gas companies have cut back on the number of oil rigs for the first six weeks. The number of oil and gas rigs, a good indicator of future production, dropped by one in the week ending March 7 to 592. Baker Hughes reported that the total number of rigs is 30 or 5% lower than it was at this time last week. Baker Hughes reported that oil rigs remained unchanged at 486 rigs this week while gas rigs dropped by one to 101. Oil and gas rig counts are expected to decline by 5% and 20% respectively in 2024, as the lower U.S.
CME Gold stocks reach record levels after recurrent inflows following price swings
CME daily data revealed that gold stocks in COMEX approved warehouses increased by 218,307 to reach a new record of 39,7 million ounces. This was due to residual inflows even after the major disruption had ended. The Comex gold stock has risen 126% since late November when U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and other countries. Trump hasn't mentioned that he is targeting precious metals in his import tariffs. But market players are seeking deliveries to protect their Comex positions from such a scenario. This activity increased the premium between U.S.
German wind power supply increases, lowering spot prices
The European spot electricity prices for Wednesday dropped on Tuesday, as the wind power generation in Germany is expected to increase and demand is expected to fall throughout the region. German power for the day ahead fell by 23.9% at 1001 GMT to 83 Euro per Megawatt Hour. LSEG data shows that the French baseload rate for the day to come was 94 euros/MWh - down 13.8%. LSEG analyst Florine Engl said that residual load in Germany is decreasing due to an increase in wind supply. Forecasts indicate that exports will continue to be made throughout the day.
Shell's LNG enthusiasm for Asia is a conundrum of volume vs. price: Russell
Shell's long-term outlook is contradictory, which shouldn't be surprising. Shell's annual LNG outlook was released last week. It predicted that the demand for LNG would increase by 60% by 2040. This is largely due to the strong economic growth of Asia, artificial intelligence, and the need to reduce emissions in heavy industry and transportation. Shell has said that the global LNG demand is expected to rise from 407 millions tons in 2024 to 630-718 million metric tonnes by 2040. Shell's estimates reveal a large potential gap in supply. The London-listed company believes that LNG production will increase by 170 millions tons by 2030.
Shell's LNG enthusiasm for Asia is hampered by a conundrum of volume and price: Russell
Shell's long-term outlook is contradictory, which shouldn't be surprising. Shell's annual LNG outlook was released last week. It predicted that the demand for LNG would increase by 60% by 2040. This is largely due to the strong economic growth of Asia, artificial intelligence, and the need to reduce emissions in heavy industry and transportation. Shell has said that the global LNG demand is expected to rise from 407 millions tons in 2024 to 630-718 million tons by 2040. Shell's estimates reveal a large potential gap in supply. The London-listed company believes that LNG production will increase by 170 millions tons by 2030.
Congo considers export quotas for cobalt to boost prices amid glut
Three sources with knowledge of the situation said that the Democratic Republic of Congo was considering cobalt export quotas in order to reduce oversupply of the metal and increase prices. The cobalt price is at a historically low level due to a slackening in demand by automakers. Mines are also ramping up their production of copper from which the cobalt can be extracted as a side-product. Sources who declined to name themselves and discuss sensitive issues said that the Congolese Government has discussed the plan of introducing limits, but no final decision had been made. Congo banned all battery metal exports for four months Monday in order to control an oversupply.
Spot prices are mixed as German winds set to fall
On Tuesday, the European spot electricity prices for Wednesday were mixed as it was expected that wind power production would fall in Germany but increase in France. German power for the day ahead increased by 0.9% at 0930 GMT to 137.75 Euros per Megawatt Hour. LSEG data shows that the French baseload rate for the day was 104 euros/MWh down 1.4%. Marcus Eriksson, LSEG analyst, says that residual load in Germany is on the rise due to a weaker renewable energy supply. However, it has decreased in general in the area. LSEG data revealed that on the supply side Germany expected wind output to drop by 2.4 gigawatts to 9.1 GW…
Russell: Asia LNG imports to fall to 22-month low due to Europe's surge in prices
In February, Asia's LNG imports will likely drop to their lowest level in almost two years while Europe's are expected to reach the second highest levels on record. Buyers are turning away from expensive spot cargoes that have prices that are at least 50% higher this year than they were last year. The milder than usual winter in much of North Asia also slowed down demand and allowed European buyers the opportunity to bid on cargoes to replenish the continent's depleted stocks. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia is expected to import 20.7 million tons of super-chilled LNG in February. The February total was 22,67 million, down from 24,59 million in January.
Gas prices drop and forward contracts are cancelled
On Monday, European spot prices rose for Tuesday. The wind supply in Germany is expected to drop to less than half the levels of Friday while demand has increased in many countries across the region. LSEG data shows that the German day-ahead electricity price was 143 euros ($149.79 per megawatt hour (MWh), up 61.6% on Friday's rate for Monday. LSEG data shows that the French baseload electricity for Tuesday is 106 euros/MWh. This is 71% more than what was paid on Friday, for delivery Monday. LSEG data shows that German wind power production is expected to drop by 16.5 gigawatts to 11.5 GW while French output is projected to fall 1.4 GW at 7.6 GW.
Russell: Asia LNG imports to fall to a 22-month low due to Europe's surge in prices.
In February, Asia's LNG imports will likely drop to their lowest level in almost two years while Europe's will surge to the highest levels ever recorded. Buyers are turning away from expensive spot cargoes that have prices at least 50 percent higher than they were last year. The milder than usual winter in much of North Asia also dampened the demand and allowed European buyers bid on cargoes to replenish the continent's dwindling inventories. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia is expected to import 20.7 million tons of super-chilled LNG in February. The February total was 22,67 million, down from 24,59 million in January.
Spot prices drop on increasing wind power supply
European spot prices fell on Monday for Tuesday, as a rise in wind power production across the region is expected to exceed demand increases. LSEG data shows that the German day-ahead electricity price was 135.75 Euros ($142.29 per megawatt hour (MWh), down 9.5% on Friday's prices for Monday. LSEG data shows that the French baseload electricity price for Tuesday is 129.50 Euros/MWh. This is a 5.8% decrease from Friday's price for Monday's delivery. Naser Hashemi, LSEG analyst, said that residual load was down in Germany (on Tuesday) as well as France and the Netherlands.
US drillers added oil and gas drilling rigs in the third week of a row, according to Baker Hughes
Baker Hughes, a leading energy services company, said that U.S. firms added oil and gas rigs this week for the third consecutive week for the first since December 2023. The number of oil and gas rigs, a good indicator of future production, increased by two in the week ending February 14 to 588. Baker Hughes reported that despite this week's increase in rigs the total count is still 33 rigs or 5% lower than this time last. Baker Hughes reported that oil rigs increased by one this week to 481 while gas rigs grew by one to 101. Oil and gas rig counts are expected to decline by 5% and 20% respectively in 2024, as the lower U.S.
German spot prices fall on increased wind power
European spot prices fell on Monday due to a higher average wind output, which is expected to exceed the increase in demand. LSEG data shows that the German day-ahead electricity price was 120.75 Euros ($124.77 per megawatt hour (MWh), down 9.7% on Friday's prices for Monday. LSEG data shows that the French baseload electricity for Tuesday was priced at 144.50 Euros/MWh. On Friday, the contract for Monday's delivery was not traded. LSEG analyst Florine Engl said that residual load in Germany is expected to decrease on Tuesday due to increased wind supply. Exports are also expected from Germany throughout the day.
German spot prices are affected by higher wind output
The spot electricity prices in Germany fell on Tuesday, as the wind power generation expected to increase. At 0902 GMT, the German power price for the day ahead was down 1.7% at 142.0 Euros per megawatt-hour. LSEG data shows that the French baseload rate for the day was 143.5 euros/MWh. This is a 0.4% decrease. On the supply-side, Germany's wind output was expected to increase by 3.9 gigawatts up to 16.2 GW. French wind power output is expected to drop by 230 megawatts per day to 2.8 GW. LSEG data revealed that solar power production in Germany was expected to drop by 1.7 GW to 4.0 GW on Tuesday. The French nuclear capacity has fallen by two percentage points, to 81%.
Spot contracts are affected by the increase in wind power supply
European spot prices on Tuesday fell by a significant amount on Monday. The average wind output is expected to double across the region. LSEG data shows that the German day-ahead electricity price was 114.50 Euro per Megawatt Per Hour (MWh) as of 1029 GMT. This is down 36.4% compared to Friday's rate for Monday. LSEG data shows that the French baseload electricity for Tuesday was 144 euros/MWh. Friday, the contract for delivery on Monday was not traded. Guro Marie Wyller, LSEG analyst, says that despite a slight increase in the demand for electricity in Germany on a day-to-day basis, residual load is expected to fall on Tuesday due to gains in wind power supply.
Falling temperatures and lower wind boost spot prices
The European spot electricity prices rose on Thursday due to lower wind production across wholesale markets in Europe and higher usage in France. This market is more exposed to the electric heating demand during winter. Guromarie Wyller, LSEG analyst, said: "France... The German baseload day-ahead at 0925 GMT increased 1.1% over the previous close, trading at 139.0 Euros ($144.63). The French equivalent for Friday delivery increased 16.4% to 128 Euros/MWh. The German wind energy output is expected to decline to 14.0 gigawatts on Friday, from 17.2 GW last Thursday. In France, wind production will drop to 4.2 GW compared to 6.2 GW during the same time period.
