Where will Trump's trade with China lead commodities in 2025? Russell
In 2025, Donald Trump's return as U.S. president and China's stagnant economy will influence global commodity markets. The only certainty is that there will be volatility, and many factors acting in opposite directions. In 2025, it will be harder to predict the prices of major commodities, such as crude oil and liquefied gas, ore like iron ore, coal, and metals, such as copper. Consider, for example, Trump's signature promise during his campaign: tariffs. Trump's threatened tariffs…
NW Europe Fuel oil Imports at 3-year High
A rush to replenish scarce supply of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) pushed Northwest European imports of residual fuel oil to their highest in three years in November, analysts told Reuters.The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area, Europe's main trading and refining hub, received around 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of all types of fuel oil in November, the highest monthly volume since November 2021.That compared with an average of 332,000 bpd over January-October this year, according…
China's oil refinery production in November increased by 0.2% year/year
China's refinery output in November increased slightly compared to last year, ending a seven-month drop, according to official data released on Monday. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), according to its data, showed that refiners processed 58.51 millions metric tons of crude last month. This is equivalent to 14,24 million barrels of oil per day. It was online in late September, when the percentage of users had increased to 60-70%. The demand for refined products has improved since late last month. Some refiners have also received a boost in their operation rates.
EIA: US Crude Imports to fall to lowest level since 1971
U.S. net crude oil imports are forecast to fall by 20% next year to 1.9 million barrels per day, their lowest since 1971, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, pointing to higher U.S. production and lower refinery demand.The EIA expects the United States to produce 13.52 million bpd in 2025, up from 13.24 million bpd in 2024, it said in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Meanwhile refiners are set to process 16 million bpd of crude oil in 2025, down by 200…
Russell: China's crude oil imports in November recover and other commodities remain strong
The Chinese economy is having a great week, as the outlook has improved amid new stimulus measures. Commodity imports have also performed well in November. The CSI300 index, which is the benchmark, rose 3.2% on the opening day, while government bonds rallied. The announcement of additional monetary stimulus in the official media boosted sentiment. However, the high imports of commodities in November also helped. Natural resources are an important indicator of China's health, as it is the largest buyer in the world.
OPEC+ Passes on Oil Output Increase, Weighs the "Trump Effect"
It was likely a fairly easy decision for OPEC+ to once again delay plans to increase oil output.The soft state of global demand is by itself sufficient reason to justify the decision at this week's meeting of the group to defer winding back some of its production cuts until at least April.But weak demand growth may be the least of OPEC+'s worries as the oil market is about to be hit with the return of Donald Trump and all the uncertainty and contradictory policies that may bring.Trump's return to the U.S.
Cuba's electrical grid is back online but generation still lagged
Cuba announced late Wednesday that it had reconnected the national electrical grid. However, production remained well below demand a day after an outage caused by a power plant knocked millions of people off their electricity. Cuba's Energy and Mines minister Vicente de la O Levy announced on X on Wednesday that the grid had been restored just before midnight. The National Electric Union (UNE), however, announced on social media that it was "serving in" 880 MW to the system. This is a fraction of typical peak demand, which is 3,200 MW.
Palm oil futures in Malaysia rise on Dalian's market.
The price of Malaysian palm oils futures increased for the second session in a row on Wednesday. This was fueled by the strong Dalian vegetable oil contract. However, the market focus was on the November poll conducted among planters and analysts to determine the direction. At midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange for February delivery gained 47 ringgit or 0.93% to $5,122 ringgit (1,148.17 USD) per metric ton. A Kuala Lumpur based trader stated that the market tracks the gains in vegetable oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Palm gains for the fifth time in a row, logging a weekly gain
Malaysian palm futures rose on Friday for the fifth consecutive session, and recorded a weekly gain amid concerns about supply as heavy rains in Malaysia exacerbated already low production levels. The benchmark palm-oil contract for February delivery at Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives exchange gained 138 Ringgit or 2.82% to $5,023 ringgit (1,131.31 USD) per metric ton. After falling for two weeks in a row, the contract recovered to record a weekly gain 8.21%. This is the highest since the month of June 2023. Paramalingam Supramaniam is the director of Selangor brokerage firm Pelindung Bestari.
Palm oil prices rise on the back of supply problems; set to gain weekly
Malaysian palm futures rose for the fifth session in a row on Friday, and are on track to gain a week-long gain amid concerns about supply as heavy rains were exacerbating low production levels. At midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives exchange gained 121 Ringgit or 2.48% to 5,006 Ringgit ($1,128.24). This week, the contract has gained 5.23% after two consecutive weeks of falling. Paramalingam Supramaniam is the director of Selangor brokerage firm Pelindung Bestari.
Palm gains from firmer Chicago soyoil; production concerns in Malaysia
Malaysian palm futures rose on Wednesday, for the third session in a row. This was boosted by the firmer Chicago soyoil as well as production concerns. At midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange for February delivery gained 36 ringgit or 0.76% to 4,771 Ringgit ($1,072.62) per metric ton. Anilkumar bagani, Sunvin Group's research head, says that the crude palm oil futures have been trading in a range of sideways to uptrends after a sharp overnight rise in Chicago soyoil. However, the recent easing for South American soyoil is limiting the recovery.
RPT: How Trump's proposed tariffs could affect commodities and energy
Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States, pledged on Monday to impose tariffs on three of its largest trading partners: Canada Mexico and China. He explained how he would implement his campaign promises which could lead to trade wars. The following commodities and energy sectors may be affected. According to government statistics, Canada will export energy products worth $177.19 billion to the United States by 2023. Canada's crude oil imports account for more than one fifth of the total amount of oil processed by U.S. refineries. Around 70% of Canadian barrels imported by U.S.
Oil Edges to 2-Week High on Ukraine News
Oil prices edged up about 1% to a two-week high on Friday as the intensifying war in Ukraine this week boosted the market's geopolitical risk premium.Brent futures rose 66 cents, or 0.9%, to $74.89 a barrel by 11:39 a.m. EST (1639 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 rose 77 cents, or 1.1%, to $70.87.That put both crude benchmarks up over 5% for the week and on track for their highest closes since Nov. 7 as Moscow steps up its Ukraine offensive after Britain and the U.S.
Palm prices fall on weaker demand for exports and Chicago soyoil.
Malaysian palm futures fell on Wednesday due to a weaker Chicago soyoil price and sluggish demand for exports. Investors are awaiting cargo surveyor data in order to determine the direction of prices. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Malaysia Exchange for February delivery had fallen 33 ringgit or 0.67% to 4,891 Ringgit ($1,094.92) per metric ton. The contract gained 0.51% during the last session. David Ng said that the market fell on a weaker export demand…
India Defends Propping Up Russian Oil - Prices "would have hit the roof"
Global oil prices "would have hit the roof" if big importer India had not bought oil from Russia following the Ukraine war, India's oil minister said, adding that prices would determine where the country buys oil from.India, the world's third largest oil importer and consumer, has become the top buyer of discounted Russian sea-borne oil shunned by Western countries since Ukraine's invasion began in early 2022. Before that, India bought little oil from its long-running defence partner…
Oil Dips 2% as Hurricane Fears Ease
Oil prices fell more than 2% on Friday as traders grew less fearful of prolonged supply disruptions from a hurricane in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, while China's latest economic-stimulus packages failed to impress some oil traders.U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 led the decline, down 2.8%, or $2.01, at 70.35 per barrel by 1:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT) . Global benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 2.3%, or $1.77, to $73.86 per barrel.Energy producers shut in more than 22% of oil output in the U.S.
Cargill estimates that China's palm oil demand in 2024 will drop 30% year-on-year.
A Cargill executive said that the demand for palm products in China will drop by 30% between 2024 and 2019. This is because high prices have made it less appealing than soyoil, while vegetable oil demand stagnates. The benchmark palm oil price in Malaysia has risen over 30% this year, despite the fact that production in Indonesia's top producer is falling and there are positive sentiments about its plans to expand its biodiesel mandate. Ryan Chen, director of Cargill Investments China Ltd…
Prices of oil fall as Hurricane Rafael is expected to weaken
The oil prices dropped slightly on Friday, as the market continued to assess how Donald Trump's policy might impact supplies. Brent crude oil futures dropped 26 cents or 0.3% to $75.37 a barrel at 0209 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), gained 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.01. After a nearly 1% increase on Thursday, benchmarks dropped. Brent is expected to increase by 3.1% this week while WTI will rise 4.1%. The U.S. National Hurricane Center stated that Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move slowly to the west over the Gulf of Mexico, away from U.S.
Dalian palm oil is supported by other oils
The Dalian palm oil market, which is a rival to the Malaysian palm oils market, has seen gains on Thursday. On the closing, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives exchange for January delivery gained 33 ringgit (0.67%) to 4,950 Ringgit ($1,125.00). Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract, gained 2.8% while soyoil prices rose by 1.78%. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil prices were down by 0.56%. As palm oil competes to gain a share of the global vegetable oil market, it tracks the price fluctuations of competing edible oils.
Vitol CEO flags supply uncertainties as he predicts oil prices of $70-$80/bbl by 2025
Russell Hardy, the CEO of Vitol - the world's biggest independent oil trader - said that global oil prices will remain in the $70 - $80 range per barrel in 2025. Geopolitical risk creates uncertainty about supply. The world oil price has been capped due to concerns over a reversal of OPEC+'s supply cuts by 2025, and China’s slow oil demand growth despite the risks of disruption in Middle East supply. He said that the market was driven by a concern over the balances of 2025. He said that there are still many geopolitical tensions and unknowns in the Middle East.
