Aurubis raises premium for 2026 European Copper to a record $315 per ton
Three market sources reported on Tuesday that Europe's largest copper smelter Aurubis would charge European customers an additional $315 per ton of refined copper in the coming year. This is a record-high for the German company. The premium is added to the London Metal Exchange copper price, which is used in construction and power. It is 38% higher than the $228 per ton paid in 2025 or the two previous years. Aurubis has declined to comment. The record premium is due to fears that there will be a shortage of copper in the coming year, which pushed LME Copper prices to a 16 month high of $10,000 a ton.
Copper reaches 16-month peak as it moves towards its strongest week since April
Copper prices rose to a 16-month peak on Friday as supply restrictions and a weaker dollar drove up the price. In official open-outcry trading, three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7% to $10,565 per kilogram. It is on track for a gain of 4,1% on a weekly basis, marking its best week since April 7. It had previously reached $10,599.50 - the highest level since May 29, 2024. "The focus of the market is on the supply-side - the risks to supply, and the possible delay in getting back supply. This is helping to drive the momentum," Ole Hansen said, head of commodity strategies at Saxo Bank.
Dollar softens as concerns about supply persist. Copper prices rise.
The copper price rose slightly on Wednesday due to the ongoing disruption in mine supply, and a weaker dollar. As of 0930 GMT, the London Metal Exchange reported that three-month copper was up 0.3% to $10,294.50 a ton. The markets in China, the world's largest metals consumer, are closed between October 1 and 8 for National Day. The brokerage said that Freeport-McMoRan's announcement of force majeure at its Graberg Mine in Indonesia last week acted as a catalyst to move away from rangebound prices. However, any significant price increase may be limited by the key resistance level, which is $10,500 per ton.
Andy Home: Depleted LME Zinc Stocks may Need a Chinese Booster
The market for zinc has only just realized that the London Metal Exchange's inventory is so low it could cover less than one day of global consumption. The LME spreads have become volatile, and the cash premium on the three-month price has increased. Last week, the price of a metric ton reached $60. This was a level that had not been exceeded since 2022. All signs point to a market in severe supply deficit. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group, however, estimates that there was a global surplus in the first seven month of this year of 72,000 tonnes. The bad news is that it appears the excess metal on the LME market is in China.
Andy Home: Grasberg disaster shows fragility in copper supply chain
Copper markets are used to sudden supply disruptions, but the events that occurred at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg Mine in Indonesia were unprecedented in their scale and impact. Grasberg, after Escondida mine in Chile, is the second largest copper mine in the world. The 815,000 tons of copper produced last year represented 4% of the global output. The events that took place in Block Cave on the evening of September 8 were the stuff of nightmares. A massive 800,000-ton rush of mud erupted in the mine and spread rapidly, blocking all access routes. Two workers died.
Copper reaches 15-month high as China's smelting restrictions add to supply concerns
Copper prices reached a new 15-month-high on Thursday. This was a continuation of recent gains, as fears about supply were heightened by proposed controls on China's smelting capacities after Freeport McMoran Inc. slashed their mine production forecast for Indonesia. The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange increased 0.9%, to $10431.50 per metric ton as of 0939 GMT. The metal used for power and construction reached a record high in May 2024 of $11,104.50 per ton. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association…
Freeport expects lower copper and gold sales after declaring force majeure in Grasberg
Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on Wednesday at its Grasberg Mine in Indonesia. It also said that it expects consolidated sales for copper and gold to be lower in the third quarter. This sent its shares down by 10%. Earlier this week, the company temporarily halted its mining operations at Grasberg, after a large amount of wet materials blocked access to certain parts of underground mine and restricted evacuation routes for seven employees. Two team members were killed in the incident. The company announced that operations at Grasberg - one of the largest gold and cobalt mines in the world - would not resume before the first half 2026.
Freeport suspends Indonesian Grasberg mine operations following underground incident
Freeport-McMoRan announced on Tuesday that it temporarily halted the mining of Indonesia's Grasberg Mine after a large amount of wet materials blocked access to certain parts of its underground. This restricted evacuation routes for seven employees. The company reported that the incident happened late Monday night at one of the five production blocks within the Grasberg Block Cave Underground Mine in Central Papua. Freeport stated that the location of the seven employees is known, and they believe that they are safe. Rescue crews are clearing the area to allow for a quick and safe evacuation.
Andy Home: Zinc market ignores low LME stock as a false signal
Zinc stocks at the London Metal Exchange (LME), have fallen for seven consecutive months. The remaining zinc stocks would only cover one day of global consumption. No one has told the market that zinc is in real danger of being scarce. Zinc underperformed all the other base metals on the LME this year, and it is the only one that still trades below its start-of-year price by 4%. Time-spreads are tightening but remain at a small contango. This suggests that the LME's near-depletion of inventory isn't a true reflection of the real world. This wouldn't mark the first time that LME zinc stock has been manipulated to fool the unwary.
Aluminum producers in the US benefit from Trump's tariffs
Four industry sources say that President Donald Trump will benefit from the higher tariffs on imported metals as domestic prices rise. Some industry players worry that Trump's decision to increase tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, could cause prices to soar that the demand begins to weaken. The market price of the metal key used in the construction, energy and packaging industries is expected to increase revenues for U.S. aluminum producers and recyclers. Customers are charged the London Metal Exchange price for aluminium plus a physical premium to cover additional costs, such as freight and taxes.
Bloomberg reports that Mercuria is betting big on aluminum in a peace agreement with Russia.
Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Mercuria Energy Group had built up a large aluminum position at the London Metal Exchange. The company was betting on a tightening of the market if sanctions were eased against Moscow. Bloomberg reported that Mercuria has contracts for more than 1 million tons aluminum, which is several times what's currently available on the LME. This, Bloomberg noted, had helped to drive a rapid tightening of the market in recent days. According to the report, sources who asked for anonymity in order to discuss confidential information, have been in touch with Mercuria regarding its aluminum position.
Congo considers export quotas for cobalt to boost prices amid glut
Three sources with knowledge of the situation said that the Democratic Republic of Congo was considering cobalt export quotas in order to reduce oversupply of the metal and increase prices. The cobalt price is at a historically low level due to a slackening in demand by automakers. Mines are also ramping up their production of copper from which the cobalt can be extracted as a side-product. Sources who declined to name themselves and discuss sensitive issues said that the Congolese Government has discussed the plan of introducing limits, but no final decision had been made.
CME copper reaches two-month highs; focus on US tariffs
The COMEX copper prices rose to two-month-highs on Thursday, as the market tried to discount the possibility of hefty tariffs being imposed on U.S. imported goods after Donald Trump becomes president-elect in the United States later this month. The industrial metal prices on COMEX (part of CME Group) hit $4.285, or $9.446.82 per metric ton. This is the highest price since November 11, when Trump won the U.S. elections and floated import duties. The contract last rose 1.0% to $4.2795. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) copper contract has a premium of around $400 per ton, up from near zero in 2025.
The copper giant Peru predicts another plateau in production by 2025
According to analysts and the top mining association in Peru, copper production will remain flat for the third consecutive year in 2025, due to declining ore grades. The South American nation is a global powerhouse in the copper industry, ranking third behind Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In 2023, the Congo will overtake Peru as the second-largest producer. The decline in ore grade after many years of mining makes it difficult for mines to maintain production levels. Meanwhile, a copper shortage is expected to be a problem for the next decade, due to demand for electric cars, renewable energy, and data centers.
The copper giant Peru predicts another plateau in production by 2025
According to analysts and the top mining association in Peru, copper production will remain flat for the third consecutive year in 2025, due to declining ore grades. The South American nation is a global powerhouse in the copper industry, ranking third behind Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In 2023, the Congo will overtake Peru as the second-largest producer. The decline in ore grade after many years of mining makes it difficult for mines to maintain production levels. Meanwhile, a copper shortage is expected to be a problem for the next decade, due to demand for electric cars, renewable energy, and data centers.
Sources say that Chinese exporters will increase prices and renegotiate after the tax rebates are cut.
Analysts and traders said that Chinese exporters will increase prices on a variety of products, from used cooking oil to aluminium, and renegotiate their contracts to pass the cost of Beijing’s tax incentives. On Friday, the world's second-largest economy announced that it would reduce its export tax rebate rates for certain refined oil products, solar panels, batteries, and non-metallic minerals from 13% down to 9%. It also said that it would cancel the rebates for products made of aluminium, copper, and fatty acids and oils derived from animals, plants, or microorganisms which have been chemically altered, including used cooking fat (UCO).
Equities, commodities climb after China announces stimulus
After China announced stimulus measures for its economy, a widely-followed global stock index reached a new record high. Copper prices also hit their highest level in 10 week on Tuesday. Mining stocks drove the Dow and S&P 500 to record-breaking closing highs. The Chinese yuan reached a 16-month-high against the U.S. Dollar, and oil prices rose to a 3-week-high on the news that China was the world's largest crude importer. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced plans to reduce borrowing costs and inject additional funds into China's economy as well as ease mortgage repayment burdens for households.
Andy Home: Nickel market is no longer worried about Russian supply
The market has shrugged off the suggestion by Russian President Vladimir Putin that Moscow could consider capping nickel exports in retaliation to Western sanctions. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month price managed to make a slight bounce above the $16,000 per metric ton mark, but momentum is fading. It's a long way from the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The fear that sanctions could be imposed on metal produced by Russian giant Norilsk Nickel sparked a massive rally in 2022, which culminated in a complete meltdown of LME nickel. Two and a half year is a very long time on the nickel market.
Andy Home: Zinc concentrations are squeezed but metal is not in short supply
The global zinc mine production is continuing to decline and raw material shortages are now beginning to affect China, in particular. The 14 Chinese smelters that account for 70% of China's refined Zinc production agreed to postpone new capacity and adjust maintenance plans in order to maintain operating margins. The impact of this on production rates is yet to be determined. These announcements are more likely to be a price signal rather than a concrete action plan. Zinc futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), the largest contract, rose by 10% in response to the news.
Andy Home: Zinc concentrations are squeezed but metal is not in short supply
The global zinc mine production is continuing to decline and raw materials are now beginning to squeeze, especially in China. In an effort to maintain operating margins, a group of 14 Chinese zinc smelters that accounts for 70% of the country’s refined zinc production agreed to postpone new capacity and adjust maintenance plans earlier this month. The impact of this on production rates is yet to be determined. These announcements are more likely to be a price signal rather than a concrete action plan. Zinc futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), the largest contract, rose by 10% in response to the news.