China increases coal mining to provide winter power: Kemp
China's coal production has reached record levels, and its imports have also risen. However, the surge in power generated by solar farms and hydro dams has reduced thermal generation. The reliability of electricity is dependent on coal-fired power generation, especially during the winter when solar and hydro output are lower and the system relies more heavily on fossil fuel. Even though wind and solar power have been deployed in record numbers, coal is still the most common source of electricity generation, with winter months seeing a rise to over 75%.
China increases coal mining to provide winter power: Kemp
China's coal production has reached record levels, and its imports have also risen. However, the surge in power generated by solar farms and hydro dams has reduced thermal generation. The reliability of electricity is dependent on coal-fired power generation, especially during the winter when solar and hydro output are lower and the system relies more heavily on fossil fuels. Even though wind and solar power have been deployed in record numbers, coal is still the most common source of electricity generation, with winter months seeing a rise to over 75%.
Kemp: Oil bears focus attention on low demand and planned production boost
Investors remain resolutely pessimistic about the future of petroleum prices, despite growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in order to stimulate consumer spending and business investment. Fund managers sold oil futures and option last week after the rally to cover shorts the previous week quickly lost momentum. In the seven-day period ending August 20, hedge funds and other money mangers sold equivalent to 48 million barrels of oil in six important futures and option contracts.
Kemp: Oil bears focus attention on low demand and planned production boost
Investors remain resolutely pessimistic about the future of petroleum prices, despite growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in order to stimulate consumer spending and business investment. Fund managers sold oil futures and option last week after the rally to cover shorts the previous week quickly lost momentum. In the seven-day period ending August 20, hedge funds and other money managers sold equivalent to 48 million barrels of oil in six important futures and option contracts.
Kemp: Oil bears become cautious as financial markets ease.
Investors reduced their short positions on petroleum after the other financial markets stabilized following an abrupt plunge earlier in this month. Crude prices also found support above $75 a barrel. Over the course of the week ending August 13, hedge funds and other money mangers purchased the equivalent amount of 74,000,000 barrels on the six most important contracts for petroleum futures and option contracts. The majority of purchases were made to buy back existing bearish short positions (+19 million barrels), rather than create new bullish long positions (-55 millions). Fund managers purchased U.S.
The European gas surplus is almost gone: Kemp
The record European gas surplus that was inherited in winter 2023/24 is now largely gone, thanks to a very small accumulation of stocks so far this summer 2024.Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data shows that inventories in the European Union and United Kingdom are up just 336 Terawatt Hours (TWh).The accumulation is the lowest since 2012, and compares to a 10-year average of 443 TWh (Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory", GIE. August 14).On Aug. 12, stocks were still 170 tWh (+20% or +1.46 standard errors) above the average for the past 10 years…
Kemp: Oil investors reduce positions to a record low amid financial meltdown.
Investors reduced their positions in petroleum to the lowest levels for at least 10 years early last week as part of a general retreat from risk amid growing concerns about a global slowdown. Over the course of the week ending August 6, hedge funds and other money mangers sold 110 million barrels equivalent in six important contracts for petroleum futures and options. In each of the last five weeks, fund managers were net sellers. Their combined position has decreased by 372 million barrels from the beginning of July. By August 6, the combined position was down to 152 millions barrels.
Kemp: Oil investors reduce positions to record lows amid financial meltdown.
Investors reduced their positions in petroleum to the lowest levels for at least 10 years early last week as part of a general retreat from risk amid growing concerns about a global slowdown. Over the course of the week ending August 6, hedge funds and other money managers sold 110 million barrels equivalent in six important contracts for petroleum futures and options. In each of the last five weeks, fund managers were net sellers. Their combined position has decreased by 372 million barrels from the beginning of July. By August 6, the combined position was down to 152 millions barrels.
Kemp: Oil traders focus on economy, not dwindling stock.
The oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, as traders focus their attention on a potential slowdown of the major economies. At the end of the month of June, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) advanced economies had 2,761,000,000 barrels of crude and refined product in their commercial stocks. The stocks were 120 million barrels below the seasonal average of the past ten years (-4%, or -7.71 standard deviations), and the deficit was now 74 million barrels higher than the previous end-of-March (-3%, or -4.47 standard deviations).
Kemp: Oil traders focus on the economy, not dwindling stock
The oil prices fell in recent weeks, as traders looked past the depletion of global inventories and focused on a future threat that could be posed by the possible slowdown of major economies.At the end of the month of June, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) advanced economies had 2,761,000,000 barrels of commercial crude and refined product stocks.The stocks were 120,000,000 barrels below the seasonal average of the past ten years (-4%, or -7.71 standard deviations)…
Finance: Investors Become Super-Bullish on Oil
Portfolio investors have piled into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate since the first successful coronavirus vaccines were announced in late 2020.China’s exit from a zero-COVID strategy, along with hopes the global economy can avoid a recession and low oil inventories, have contributed to an extraordinary wave of buying across the petroleum complex.Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 232 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the six weeks ended Jan.
MARKETS: Hedge Funds Sell Oil
Hedge funds have reduced their position in petroleum futures and options for the first time in 16 weeks, the first weekly net sales since the first successful coronavirus vaccine trials were announced in early November.Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 9 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Feb. 23.The sale comes after portfolio managers purchased a total of 548 million barrels over the previous 15 weeks, according to records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S.
Oil Market Stalls as Absence of Signals Compounds Summer Slowdown
Hedge funds' oil trading largely dried up last week as the normal summer holiday slowdown was compounded by an absence of price or fundamental signals about the future direction of the market.Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 13 million barrels in the six major petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Aug. 4, after selling 40 million the week before.Portfolio managers have left their overall position little changed since the end of June, according to an analysis of records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S.
Oil Consumption Tracking is All About Asia
Oil market analysts must make sense of a bewildering array of statistics about production, consumption and inventories, compiled and published with varying definitions and degrees of accuracy and timeliness.The challenge is to form an accurate and nuanced picture of the whole market capable of generating useful forecasts, without becoming lost in the insignificant details.The World Bank identifies around 200 economies in the world, but on the consumption side, at least, only a handful are…
Oil Traders Bet on Economic Upswing in 2020
Crude oil traders are betting the market will tighten significantly next year, even as the major statistical agencies predict production will outstrip consumption and oil inventories will rise.Most of the divergence can be explained by differing assumptions about global growth in 2020.The International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are all projecting that the oil market will be in surplus in…
Hedge Funds More Bullish on Oil: Kemp
Hedge funds have started to become more optimistic about the outlook for oil prices amid hopes that the United States and China will reach a trade truce and the global economy will avert recession in 2019/20.From a fundamental perspective, hedge funds are rebuilding long positions in crude and fuels because the news flow about the economy is no longer deteriorating, even if it is not yet improving much.From a positioning perspective, funds are anticipating that many of the futures and options…
U.S. Refiners Control Gasoline, Diesel Oversupply
U.S. refiners have cut seasonal crude processing sharply since the start of the second quarter, averting a potential oversupply of gasoline and distillates, but worsening the build up of crude stocks.U.S. refiners have processed an average 16.64 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude since the start of the year compared with 16.94 million bpd at the same point in 2018 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2N9ziVH).Some of the loss can be attributed to the destruction of the 335,0000 bpd Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery by fire near the end of June.But refiners started running below prior-year rates from March…
Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Oil: Kemp
By early last week, hedge funds had become the most bearish towards petroleum prices since the start of the year, as traders grew increasingly pessimistic about the global economy.Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 95 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts tied to petroleum prices in the week to Oct. 8.Sales over the last three weeks have totalled 206 million barrels, according to an analysis of position records published by the U.S.
US Rig Count Slides
U.S. energy firms this week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row as producers cut spending, leading to slower growth in crude output.Drillers cut five oil rigs in the week to Sept. 13, bringing the total count down to 733, the lowest since November 2017, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.In the same week a year ago, there were 867 active rigs.The oil rig count, an early indicator of future output…
Hedge Funds Buying Oil Despite Trump's OPEC Comments
Hedge funds continued to boost their bullish position in crude and fuels last week despite a call from U.S. President Donald Trump for OPEC to "relax and take it easy".Hedge funds and other money managers were net buyers of an extra 16 million barrels of Brent crude futures and options in the week to Feb. 26, according to ICE Futures Europe.Fund managers have been net buyers of 155 million barrels of Brent futures and options since Dec. 4, increasing their net long position in 11 out of the last 12 weeks (https://tmsnrt.rs/2EJUvB4).Funds were net buyers in the week to Feb.
