Wednesday, January 22, 2025

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Trump's complaint about the trade deficit with EU and what could come next

Donald Trump, President of the United StatesTrump has pledged to reduce a long-standing trade deficit between the United States and the European Union. He says he will do this by imposing tariffs, or forcing the EU to buy more U.S. gas and oil. In a memo entitled "America First Trade Policy", issued by Trump on his first day in the White House, he directed the Commerce and Treasury Departments and the U.S. Trade Rep to investigate the goods trade deficit and recommend measures before April. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that the EU is willing to engage in negotiations with the United States.

Trump lifts the freeze on LNG export permits

The U.S. President Donald Trump ordered on Monday that the U.S. resume processing applications for export permits for new liquefied gas (LNG). This is part of his effort to increase U.S. energy production and to dismantle climate policies from his predecessor. The Republican executive order was expected and reverses the pause that Joe Biden, former president, had put in place for permits to be issued for new projects in early 2024. Biden, a Democrat from the United States, halted the approvals to allow U.S. National Laboratories to study the economic and environmental effects of the booming industry. The United States will be the largest LNG exporter in the world by 2023.

TSX reaches 5-week highs as US trade tariffs are held back

Investors expressed relief at the news that President Donald Trump would not impose immediate U.S. tariffs on Canada. The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 103.66, or 0.4% at 25,171.58, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains, and highest closing level since December 13. A Trump administration official confirmed that Trump would issue a general trade memo on his first day of office. The memo will not impose new tariffs but will direct federal agencies to evaluate U.S. trading relationships with China Canada and Mexico. Trump had threatened to impose a 25% immediate tariff on Canadian goods.

Argentina negotiates gas imports with Bolivia and Chile after heatwave increases demand

Bolivia and Chile have begun talks to resume gas exports to Argentina, amid a spike in demand sparked by a heatwave this summer. This highlights the challenges facing the government of Buenos Aires in its quest to become self-sufficient in energy. Armin Dorgathen Taia, the head of Bolivia's state energy company YPFB told me by phone on Friday that "we are in a negotiations with Argentina to create a contract spot". These talks were previously unknown. In a Friday statement, Chilean authorities also stated that they expected to reach a new deal with Argentina for the supply of gas to Chile's remote northern region.

Executive: Bolivia and Argentina in talks to restart gas supply due to spike in demand

Bolivia's state energy company YPFB has begun talks with Argentina to resume gas exports, amid a spike in demand sparked by a heatwave this summer. This highlights the challenges facing the government of Buenos Aires in its quest to become self-sufficient in energy. Armin Dorgathen Tapiea, the YPFB's chief, told a reporter by phone on Friday that "we are in a discussion with Argentina about creating a spot contract." These talks were previously unknown. In September, after nearly two decades of exports to Argentina from Bolivia, the country increased its domestic production using its vast Vaca Muerta shale and began shifting toward becoming a net exporter of energy.

The US sanctions against Russia have caused a spike in global diesel prices

Analysts and LSEG data indicate that global diesel prices and refinery margins increased following the latest round U.S. sanctions against Russia's oil market on the expectation of tightening supplies. On Jan. 10, the United States imposed their toughest sanctions yet against Russian producers and tanks to reduce the revenue of the No. 2 oil exporter in world. The United States used the revenue of Russia's No. 2 oil exporter to fund its war in Ukraine. Many of the newly targeted vessels, which are part of a shadow fleet, were used to transport oil to India and China.

China's lead in coal imports over India is the largest it has been in more than 10 years

China, the largest coal importer in the world, has extended its lead over India, No. The gap between China and India, the world's No. 2 coal buyer last year, was the largest since at least 2013. Customs data show. This helped cement its grip on global markets while also helping to stem a price slide. According to the International Energy Agency, global thermal coal prices are still 50% higher than average for the period 2017-19, despite a decline from the record highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China's appetite for commodities is keeping prices in their current range.

VLCC Rates Spike as US Sanctions Bite

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Supertanker freight rates jumped after the U.S. expanded sanctions on Russia's oil industry, sending traders rushing to book vessels to ship supply from other countries to China and India, shipbrokers and traders said.Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking alternative fuel supplies as they adapt to severe new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and tankers designed to curb the world No. 2 oil exporter's revenue due to its war in Ukraine.Many of the newly-targeted vessels, part of a so-called shadow fleet that seeks to avoid Western restrictions…

Guyana exports 225 crude cargoes by 2024

Guyana will export 225 cargoes in crude oil by 2024, said its energy minister on Tuesday. A consortium led the U.S. giant Exxon Mobil has been ramping up its production and updating its facilities. Last year, Latin America's new oil producer became the fifth largest crude oil exporter in the region, after Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela. It was also identified as a major contributor to the global growth of oil supplies. Minister Vickram Bharrat announced that detailed figures about output and exports would be released this week. He said that the government will ship 28 cargoes from the crude oil produced by Exxon in 2024.

Sources say that OMV's Romanian subsidiary has agreed to supply gas to Germany

Three people with knowledge of the situation have confirmed that OMV's Romanian subsidiary has signed a contract to supply Uniper gas from its Black Sea Project starting in 2027. This comes as Europe looks for new ways to increase energy security following the breakup with Russia. The deal, which was not disclosed before, is for a five-year supply of 15 terawatts of natural gas to be delivered by the Neptun Deep Project. This comes after Russia stopped gas deliveries via Ukraine last month and the European Union began to reduce its energy purchases due in part to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The contract volume would represent about 1.5% in Germany's imports of gas in 2024.

Sources say that Austria's OMV Romanian unit has agreed to supply gas to Germany

Three people with knowledge of the situation have confirmed that Austria's OMV Romanian has signed a contract to supply Germany's Uniper gas from its Black Sea Project from 2027. This is as Europe looks for new ways to increase energy security following its breakup with Russia. The deal, which was not disclosed before, is for a five-year supply of 15 terawatts of natural gas to be delivered by the Neptun Deep Project. This comes after Russia stopped gas deliveries via Ukraine last month and an overall reduction in energy purchases made by the European Union from Moscow as a result of its invasion of Ukraine.

Indonesia suspects that virgin palm oil is mixed with used cooking oils exported by Indonesia

Indonesia announced on Thursday that its exports of used palm oil and cooking oil residues in recent years exceeded production capacity. This indicated crude palm oil had been mixed into the oil, prompting Indonesia to issue a regulation this week limiting shipments. The world's largest palm oil exporter issued a decree on Wednesday to clamp down on the shipments of used palm oil and cooking oil residues. This was done in order to avoid a possible shortage of CPO at home. Data from the Trade Ministry showed that exports of High Acid Palm Oil Residues…

Indonesia restricts the export of palm residue and used cooking oil to domestic users

Indonesia has tightened its export restrictions on used cooking oil, palm oil residues and palm oil waste to supply the domestic cooking oil industry and biodiesel. The government announced this in a new regulatory on Wednesday. It said that the move by the top palm oil producer and exporter in the world aims to achieve a new mandate, starting this year, which calls for mixing 40 percent of palm-oil-based fuels with diesel fuel (called B40), up from 35 percent previously. The Indonesian authorities are looking at ways to restrict UCO exports. However, the extent of this tightening is not yet clear.

Sources: Austria's OMV has agreed to supply Romanian Gas to Germany

Three people with knowledge of the deal said that Austria's OMV will supply Germany's Uniper gas from its Black Sea Project from 2027. This comes as Europe looks for new ways to increase energy security following the breakup with Russia. The deal, which was not disclosed before, is for a five-year supply of 15 terawatts of natural gas to be delivered by the Neptun Deep Project. This comes after Russia stopped gas deliveries via Ukraine last month and a general slowdown in energy purchases made by the European Union from Moscow because of its invasion of Ukraine. The contract volume would represent about 1.5% in Germany's imports of gas in 2024.

US Storm, Weaker Dollar Push Oil to 12-week High

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Oil prices edged up to a 12-week high on Monday as a winter storm boosted demand for energy to heat U.S. homes and businesses, and on support from a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of tighter sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports.Brent futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $76.78 a barrel by 11:33 a.m. EST (1633 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.23.Both crude benchmarks gained for a sixth-straight day with Brent on track for its highest close since Oct. 14 and WTI on track for its highest close since Oct.

In the pro-Russian region of Moldova, thousands are left without gas or heat

Authorities said that more than 51,000 households in the pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova were without gas, and 1,500 apartment blocks had no heat for winter. This was after Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement last week with Russia. Transdniestria (a separatist region dominated by Russian speakers along the Ukrainian border) had been receiving Russian gas through Ukraine for decades. It used it to produce electricity that was sold to the rest Moldova and provided 80% of its power. This gas, along with the flow to Central and Eastern…

Indonesian companies have one-and-a half months to introduce the new B40 biodiesel blend

Yuliot Tajung, deputy minister of energy and mineral resources in Indonesia, told reporters Friday that Indonesian companies would have a transition period of one and a half months to meet the B40 biodiesel requirements. The industry is still waiting on technical regulations. The largest palm oil exporter in the world currently mandates a biodiesel blend of 35%. Yuliot stated that the transition period began on January 1. The market participants are awaiting the official decree that details the amount of biodiesel Indonesia will allocate fuel retailers in order to gauge the impact on palm oil exports.

French spot prices drop on mild temperatures and high winds

French prompt power prices dropped on Monday due to mild temperatures and the expectation of high German wind power output. The price of French baseload electricity for Tuesday dropped by more than 40%, to 72.25 Euros ($74.82). William Peck, Energy Aspects analyst, said that the primary reason for this is because these days were very mild. The French grid operator RTE predicted them to be 3-5 degrees Celsius above normal. He also mentioned high wind power levels in France and Germany. German day-ahead electricity had not yet traded by 1042 GMT, after closing at 121.55 euro/MWh.

Sources say that the US study is likely to refrain from concluding that LNG exports are not in the public interest.

Two industry sources familiar with the matter said that the administration of President Joe Biden will release a report on Tuesday regarding the export of liquefied gas. The study is not expected to conclude that the trade does not serve the public's interest. Biden halted in January the Department of Energy’s approvals of U.S. LNG imports to major consumers in Asia, Europe and the Middle East in order to allow his administration to study the economic and environmental impacts of this booming industry. Donald Trump, the president-elect, has stated that he is against this pause and will act quickly to reverse it.

Document filed by Venture Global LNG shows that it wants to extend the force majeure for its first plant until 2025.

Venture Global LNG intends to extend force majeure for its Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana until 2025. This would delay the first deliveries under long-term contract to three years following production. Due to power problems, the plant's prolonged commissioning has resulted in contract arbitration actions brought by BP, Shell, Edison, Repsol Galp and Orlen. Venture Global could lose the cases and be forced to pay billions in damages, according to an IPO filing on Friday. Venture Global informed potential investors that under the extended force majeure clause, customers will not be able cancel their purchase and sales agreements after June 20, 2025.

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