Rising Oil Prices Herald Next Phase in Cycle
Oil prices are now in the top half of the cycle, with benchmark Brent on Thursday trading above $80 per barrel for the first time since November 2014.In real terms, prices averaged $75 per barrel over the course of the last full cycle, which lasted from December 1998 to January 2016.The recent rise in prices sends a strong signal about the need for more production and slower growth in oil consumption.In the next few months, the narrative will increasingly turn…
Persistence of Instability in the Oil Market: Kemp
Volatility has always been the defining characteristic of oil and other commodity markets, defying repeated attempts to stabilise prices. Volatility is present at all timescales from seconds, minutes and hours to days, weeks, months and years ("Oil makes only one promise and that's volatility", Reuters, December 2015). At the macro-scale, the oil market has been characterised since its inception in the 1860s by a series of booms and busts lasting for years at a time.