EIA to Sharpen US Weekly Oil Numbers with Real-time Export Data

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been granted access to real-time oil export information for the first time, allowing it to improve weekly estimates of fuel demand at a time of intensifying scrutiny of energy data.

 

The change is likely to be welcomed by oil traders who routinely scrutinize the EIA's reports for clues on what is happening in the world's biggest oil consumer, who have long rued the agency's dependence on calculated figures.

 

The appetite for reliable data has taken on added urgency as refined fuel exports doubled since 2010 to about 4 million barrels per day.

 

Every week, the EIA publishes a Petroleum Status Report that includes data on inventories and refinery operations collected directly from energy firms. But in order to provide a more complete picture, it also provides estimates on other fundamental data including on how much fuel has been exported.

 

Currently, the agency uses a model that incorporates the most recent 60 months of export data to estimate current weekly export levels, an inexact process that often causes a lag in trends. The most recent monthly data, pulled from the U.S. Census Bureau, is roughly two months old.

 

In the upcoming weeks - there's no specific deadline - the EIA will incorporate real-time trade data provided from the Department of Homeland Security's Customs and Border Protection, according to Robert Merriam, manager of EIA's highly-watched weekly status report.

 

The new trade data will address one of the biggest uncertainties in its weekly fuel demand data.

 

The EIA's reports are designed to estimate U.S. consumption of petroleum fuels by calculating a "product supplied" figure based on refinery output, inventories and estimated trade flows. To do this, the EIA must distinguish domestic demand from non-U.S. demand, Merriam noted.

 

While the EIA has long had access to near real-time import data, it has lacked such data on exports, leaving its demand figures subject to substantial revisions.

 

"We hope that by further sharpening our estimate of current export levels by product in the weekly report, it will provide readers with even finer insights into U.S. consumption of petroleum fuels," Merriam said.

 

He said the agency's current weekly export estimates have proven to be reliable with few exceptions, but there's always room for improvement.

 

"If we can make those estimates even more accurate by using data being collected by Customs, we want to do that," Merriam said.

 

The data is not normally made publicly available.

 

There are no plans to release the real time data, Merriam said. Agency analysts hope to get access to the raw trade data in the upcoming months, he added.

 

It is the latest effort by the EIA to address gaps in its data collection system at a time of enormous change in the U.S. energy system. Earlier this year it began publishing monthly data on crude oil transported by rail, and hopes to begin gathering more timely data for onshore oil production soon.