EIA: US natgas production to decline by 2024, while demand will rise to record levels
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook for 2024 predicts that natural gas production in the United States will decrease in 2024, while demand will reach a new record.
EIA projects that dry gas production in the US will fall from a record high of 103.8 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd), in 2023, to 103.4 bcfd by 2024. This is because several producers have reduced drilling activities following spot gas prices at Henry Hub benchmark.
EIA's projected production for 2025 is 104.8 bcfd.
The agency also predicted that domestic gas consumption will rise from 89.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023, to 89.9 in 2024, before decreasing to 89.5 in 2025.
If the projections prove correct, the 2024 year would mark the first time that the production has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This would be the first four-year period of increasing demand since 2016.
The EIA forecasts of August were 103.3 bcfd in supply and 89.8 for consumption.
Appalachia is the largest shale basin in the United States, covering Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The marketed gas (wet gas) production will decline from 35.4 billion cubic feet per day in August to 35,3 billion cubic feet per day in September. Appalachia's output will reach monthly records of 37 bcfd between November and December 2023.
The agency predicted that average U.S. LNG exports in 2024 would be 12.1 bcfd and 14.1bcfd, an increase from the record 11.9bcfd of 2023.
This was less than the 12.2 bcfd LNG export forecast by EIA in August.
As gas and renewable energy sources replace coal-fired power plants, the agency predicted that U.S. coal output would drop from 577.5 millions short tons in 2013 to 501.0 in 2024. This would be at its lowest level since 1963. By 2025, it would have fallen to 475.1 million tonnes, the lowest amount since 1962.
EIA predicted that carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from fossil fuels will rise from 4.793 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 4.809 billion metric tonnes in 2024, as gas consumption increases. And 4.821 million metrictons in 2025, as petroleum usage increases.
Carbon emissions will rise four of the five years between now and 2025, after dropping to 4.584 metric tons at the end of 2020. This was the lowest level in the last 30 years, when the 1983 pandemic slashed energy demand.
As power companies burn less coal, carbon emissions will also decline in 2023. (Reporting and editing by Scott DiSavino, Paul Simao).
(source: Reuters)
