Document shows that Russia has reduced its estimate of energy export revenue by 15% for 2025.

According to a document from the Economy Ministry, Russia's forecast for oil and gas export revenue for 2025-2027, which is a major source of funding for state budgets, has been cut by 15% due to lower oil prices.

This revision will put additional pressure on the budget already burdened by high defense spending for the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that lower oil prices this year could help to end the war in Ukraine.

The document of macroeconomic projections on which the state's budget is based showed that Russia expects to make $200.3 billion in oil and gas sales this year, a 15% decrease from the $235 billion forecast for 2024 and the previous estimate made in September.

The government estimates that it will earn $220.4 in 2026, 231 in 2027, and 244.1 in 2028. This is down by 4%, 1.1%, and 2.6% from the previous estimates.

The proceeds from oil and gas sales make up about a third (33%) of the state budget revenue in Russia.

The Russian central bank had warned in April earlier that oil prices may be weak for several years.

Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 at around $53 a barrel in April, and they traded under $60 per barrel last week.

Documents show that the ministry has also reduced its forecast for Russian oil production in 2025 to 516 millions tons (10.32million barrels per day), which is flat on an annual basis and lower than the earlier forecast of 518,000 tons.

The document stated that pipeline gas exports will rebound in 2025 from 80.6 billion cubic metres in 2024 to 89.1 bcm by 2025, up from 69.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 and 80.6 bcm before. Reporting by Darya Kosunskaya, Editing by Jan Harvey

(source: Reuters)