DNV GL Route Map for Energy Transition

Gas and variable renewables  must work together alongside greater uptake of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to secure a rapid energy transition, according to a new forecast of the energy transition by DNV GL.

According to the report '2019 Energy Transition Outlook' published by the international accredited registrar and classification society, gas and variable renewables will be the only energy sources for which demand is higher in 2050 than today.

There is no single pathway to a decarbonized energy mix. Oil and gas must be decarbonized for countries to meet climate change mitigation targets, it said. CCS will not be employed at-scale until the 2040s without governments enacting policy and industry reducing the technology cost

With support from CCS, integrated hydrocarbon and renewable energy technologies offer significant potential to help achieve climate goals, said the report.

The 2019 Energy Transition Outlook provides an independent forecast of developments in the world energy mix to 2050. By this time, gas will account for nearly 30% of the global energy supply, providing the world with a base of secure and affordable energy, and with manufacturing feedstock.  

DNV GL’s Outlook reveals there is no single pathway to a decarbonized energy mix. A combination of energy sources – primarily gas and renewables – will be the quickest route to delivering a supply of affordable, decarbonized energy in the lead-up to mid-century.

Gas will increasingly complement variable renewables, meeting demand in peak periods such as winter in colder climates.

As gas secures its place as the world’s largest energy source from the middle of the next decade, its production and consumption must be decarbonized to help achieve national and international targets for climate change mitigation.  

CCS – the only currently-available technology to deeply decarbonize hydrocarbon use – will not be employed at-scale until the 2040s unless governments develop and enact more definitive policies on its use, according to the Energy Transition Outlook.

“All major routes to successfully decarbonizing gas rely on the large-scale uptake of carbon capture and storage. The future of CCS largely lies in the hands of policy-makers setting a higher carbon price than the cost of the technology. Industry can also play a role in stimulating quicker adoption by focusing on finding ways to reduce the cost of CCS technology,” said Liv A. Hovem, CEO, DNV GL – Oil & Gas.