Demand Concerns Drive Oil Prices Down

Oil prices edged lower for a fifth session on Thursday as investors worried about the global demand outlook, however a decline in U.S. fuel inventories limited declines.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 slipped 2 cents to $76.03 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures fell 13 cents to trade at $71.80 at 0840 GMT.

Prices have plunged amid a report on Wednesday of revised employment statistics in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, that showed fewer jobs were added in 2024 than previously reported, and weak economic data last week from China, the world's second-largest economy and largest oil importer.

"The potential weakness in the U.S. economy coupled with a lacklustre recovery in China suggests oil demand growth is to be towards the lower end of expectations," said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

Investors are also expecting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, will lift some voluntary output cuts in October, adding more supply.

Concerns over how OPEC+ production would pan out in the fourth quarter if the cuts are lifted has exacerbated price weakness, though they could be paused or reversed if needed.

"The downward pressure on prices makes it increasingly likely that OPEC+ will have to scrap their plans for gradually increasing supply from October. Failing to do so, will likely put further pressure on prices," said ING analysts in a client note.

Crude prices have been slipping despite a U.S. government report on Wednesday showing U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories fell in the week ending Aug. 16, at the same time refinery runs increased.

Concerns over the Israel-Gaza war have eased in the past week as the U.S., Israel and Hamas are trying to hammer out a ceasefire deal, though U.S. diplomatic efforts earlier this week ended without a truce.

"Upside catalysts for oil may seem limited for now, with rising odds of a ceasefire in the Middle East, which saw market participants pricing out some of the geopolitical risks," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email.

(Reuters)