Conab raises estimate for Brazil's 2024/2025 sugarcane crop

Conab, Brazil's national agricultural agency, increased its forecast on Thursday for Brazil's sugarcane production in 2024/25 but stated that it would still fall below the previous season due to low rainfall and high temperatures reducing yields in key regions.

The agency estimates that the sugarcane production in South America will reach 689.83 millions metric tons in this season. This is higher than the 685.86million tons estimated in April, but lower than the 713.21million tons expected in 2023/24.

Conab revised its previous estimate up due to the improved climate conditions in northeastern Brazil that allowed for good crop development.

Conab stated that in Brazil's sugarcane belt, the center-south region, "low rainfall combined with high temperatures" should result in lower production compared to previous crops.

Conab initially predicted a 7.6% decline in sugarcane yields in 2024/25, but this is expected to be a much slower rate than 6.6%. The area harvested is expected to increase by 3.5% compared to the previous cycle.

The sugar output in Brazil was estimated at 46 million tonnes, a record for the country, which is the largest producer and exporter in the world. This season's production will be 0.7% higher than the previous estimate by Conab, but lower than the 46.29 millions tons.

According to Conab's projections, the production of sugar- and cornbased ethanol will total 35.41 billions liters. This is higher than the 34.18 trillions liters that were projected in April. Reporting by Luana Mary Benedito and Roberto Samora; editing by Gabriel Araujo

(source: Reuters)