China's carbon power will rise in 2024, surpassing expectations that coal would peak
Official data released on Friday showed that China's thermal power generation, which is mainly coal-powered, increased by 1.5% between 2024 and 2025. This was contrary to expectations, as coal generation had been expected to peak. However, growth has slowed down, reaching its lowest level in nine years, excluding years during the COVID-19 epidemic.
The data revealed the difficulties in eliminating coal-fired energy while still meeting China's growing demand for electricity to power its energy-hungry industry and electrify its economy.
The decarbonisation of China is largely attributed to the power sector, which has been a major contributor to its electrification. This can be seen in China's shift to electric cars.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, thermal power generation last year was 6,34 trillion kilowatt hours (kWh), a 1.5% increase over the previous year.
Peng Chengyao said that thermal generation was higher than S&P Global Commodity Insights' forecast at the start of the year due to higher-than expected growth in demand for power.
Thermal power production fell by 2.6% in December, to 827 billion kWh.
Analysts attribute the growth in thermal power for the full year to a lower-than-expected output of hydropower and a hot summer which pushed up demand.
The second largest power source in China, hydropower, has seen its output grow at the highest rate in 10 years, but this was a result of a very low starting point as it recovered from an intense drought that hit in 2023.
"Around September hydropower dropped really sharply... David Fishman said that the situation was only slightly better than last year's severe drought.
The combined effect of the extended heatwave in late summer meant that renewables could not meet this incremental demand.
Meteorological data revealed that last year was the hottest ever in China since records began.
The data revealed that hydropower production in 2024 will increase 10.7% on an annual basis to 1,27 trillion kWh.
According to data from the Statistics Bureau, overall power demand increased by 4.6%.
This data only includes power generated by industrial enterprises that have an annual revenue greater than 20 million yuan (2.8 million dollars). It excludes small-scale solar and wind sources. The National Energy Administration's estimates of power generation, which are due to be released in China later this month, will likely show a higher growth rate than the data provided by the Statistics Bureau.
Greenpeace analysts say that renewable energy could satisfy all of China's growing power demand by 2025. According to Greenpeace East Asia's Beijing-based project manager Gao Yuhe, this would "clear the way" for China's electricity sector to reach peak emissions by 2025. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Colleen howe)
(source: Reuters)
